New coalition not likely to help in relation to SyriaIsraeli and foreign analysts agree that the grand coalition forged by Netanyahu this week could strengthen his hand in dealing with what Western officials suspect are Iran's nuclear arms development plans and in reviving hopes of a Middle East peace with the Palestinians.But Netanyahu's now unassailable Knesset majority makes no obvious or immediate difference in the case of Syria.Two car bombers killed nearly 60 people on Thursday in the deadliest strike in Damascus since the uprising began. The attack appeared to drive a stake through the heart of a dying ceasefire declared by international mediator Kofi Annan on April 12, which he acknowledges has failed to halt the bloodshed."The hapless attempt to implement the Kofi Annan plan is ending in absurdity and humiliation," said Spyer.He believed Assad stood a good chance of surviving, "unless an international coalition comes into being which supports the opposition at least as firmly as the international coalition behind Assad supports him".Active support of the opposition would mean the creation of a buffer zone in the north, and assistance to the armed element in the Syrian uprising, this analyst said.Technically, Israel remains at war with Syria and its involvement in such a risky gamble seems highly improbable.Despite Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights after the 1973 Middle East conflict, the United Nations-patrolled disengagement line with Syria has been Israel's quietest border for 40 years - under the late Hafez Assad and now his son.Barak predicted one year ago that Assad would soon be toppled, saying Israel should not be alarmed. The process taking place in the Middle East holds great promise, he said last May.Today Barak says Israel must be ready in case "as Syria descends into chaos, advanced weapons, or part of their stock of chemical and biological weapons could spill over into both terrorist and criminal hands".Syria is widely believed to possess chemical warheads which can be fired with Soviet-era Scud missiles. Israel fears that Hezbollah, or radical Islamists, or al- Qaida fighters, could grab some of them in an uncontrolled meltdown of the regime.Could Yemeni-style solution work in Syria?"Assad is going to last," said Syria analyst Moshe Maoz of Hebrew University. "The balance of power is in his favor. There have been no mass defections."The officer corps of the army are members of Assad's minority Alawite sect, who know they would be slaughtered if Sunni-led rebels took control of Syria, and so will fight on for their lives, Maoz said.Punitive embargoes could take years to bring down Assad, he said. Sympathetic neighbors Iraq and Lebanon would ensure that Damascus never faces "a fully-fledged siege" of sanctions.In the meantime, Maoz said, Israel's best long-term strategy would be to close ranks with Sunni Arab leaders in the region, by moving finally and decisively to settle the Middle East conflict, with a peace treaty and a Palestinian state."This is the crux issue for everybody," the analyst said. Not all Israelis agree there is real linkage between the occupation of the West Bank and Arab or Iranian hostility.But Israel is in "a stormy sea in which the waves of radicalism are growing in strength", said Barak, and "any intimation of democracy, any hint of peace should be grabbed with both hands."A senior official said Israel had no solution for Syria up its sleeve. It is anxious to see more assertive policies by Western and Arab capitals, including imposition of humanitarian corridors to areas of conflict from which the United Nations estimates one million Syrians have been displaced.Such corridors would need military protection, which Western powers so far firmly rule out. Syria's northern neighbour Turkey could force a rethink, however, if it were to declare to its NATO allies that its own security was threatened.Still, it would be mistaken to corner Assad, the Israeli official said. It would be wiser to seek a way to convince his ally Russia that its investment in Syria would not be lost if Assad could be convinced to step aside, as Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh did late last year under Saudi and American pressure.Russian cooperation, said Spyer, is crucial if the Western-Arab coalition backing Annan's plan decides Assad is not complying and goes back to the Security Council seeking "further measures" to enforce a ceasefire and political settlement."It is Russian weaponry which is keeping Assad in place. Russia has invested deeply in Syria, both in terms of arms exports and broader infrastructural projects and the search for oil and gas. Of course, the importance of the naval base at Tartous should also not be underestimated," he said.But Spyer thinks Moscow and other allies of Assad "apparently believe that the regime stands a good chance of coming through this and now has the upper hand. So why should they do their US regional rivals a favor and make themselves look weak by abandoning a client?"
Israel frets on sideline as fall of Assad delayed
Analysis: J'lem has few options other than to sit the crisis out, unable to influence the outcome of an upheaval that is sure to affect it.
New coalition not likely to help in relation to SyriaIsraeli and foreign analysts agree that the grand coalition forged by Netanyahu this week could strengthen his hand in dealing with what Western officials suspect are Iran's nuclear arms development plans and in reviving hopes of a Middle East peace with the Palestinians.But Netanyahu's now unassailable Knesset majority makes no obvious or immediate difference in the case of Syria.Two car bombers killed nearly 60 people on Thursday in the deadliest strike in Damascus since the uprising began. The attack appeared to drive a stake through the heart of a dying ceasefire declared by international mediator Kofi Annan on April 12, which he acknowledges has failed to halt the bloodshed."The hapless attempt to implement the Kofi Annan plan is ending in absurdity and humiliation," said Spyer.He believed Assad stood a good chance of surviving, "unless an international coalition comes into being which supports the opposition at least as firmly as the international coalition behind Assad supports him".Active support of the opposition would mean the creation of a buffer zone in the north, and assistance to the armed element in the Syrian uprising, this analyst said.Technically, Israel remains at war with Syria and its involvement in such a risky gamble seems highly improbable.Despite Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights after the 1973 Middle East conflict, the United Nations-patrolled disengagement line with Syria has been Israel's quietest border for 40 years - under the late Hafez Assad and now his son.Barak predicted one year ago that Assad would soon be toppled, saying Israel should not be alarmed. The process taking place in the Middle East holds great promise, he said last May.Today Barak says Israel must be ready in case "as Syria descends into chaos, advanced weapons, or part of their stock of chemical and biological weapons could spill over into both terrorist and criminal hands".Syria is widely believed to possess chemical warheads which can be fired with Soviet-era Scud missiles. Israel fears that Hezbollah, or radical Islamists, or al- Qaida fighters, could grab some of them in an uncontrolled meltdown of the regime.Could Yemeni-style solution work in Syria?"Assad is going to last," said Syria analyst Moshe Maoz of Hebrew University. "The balance of power is in his favor. There have been no mass defections."The officer corps of the army are members of Assad's minority Alawite sect, who know they would be slaughtered if Sunni-led rebels took control of Syria, and so will fight on for their lives, Maoz said.Punitive embargoes could take years to bring down Assad, he said. Sympathetic neighbors Iraq and Lebanon would ensure that Damascus never faces "a fully-fledged siege" of sanctions.In the meantime, Maoz said, Israel's best long-term strategy would be to close ranks with Sunni Arab leaders in the region, by moving finally and decisively to settle the Middle East conflict, with a peace treaty and a Palestinian state."This is the crux issue for everybody," the analyst said. Not all Israelis agree there is real linkage between the occupation of the West Bank and Arab or Iranian hostility.But Israel is in "a stormy sea in which the waves of radicalism are growing in strength", said Barak, and "any intimation of democracy, any hint of peace should be grabbed with both hands."A senior official said Israel had no solution for Syria up its sleeve. It is anxious to see more assertive policies by Western and Arab capitals, including imposition of humanitarian corridors to areas of conflict from which the United Nations estimates one million Syrians have been displaced.Such corridors would need military protection, which Western powers so far firmly rule out. Syria's northern neighbour Turkey could force a rethink, however, if it were to declare to its NATO allies that its own security was threatened.Still, it would be mistaken to corner Assad, the Israeli official said. It would be wiser to seek a way to convince his ally Russia that its investment in Syria would not be lost if Assad could be convinced to step aside, as Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh did late last year under Saudi and American pressure.Russian cooperation, said Spyer, is crucial if the Western-Arab coalition backing Annan's plan decides Assad is not complying and goes back to the Security Council seeking "further measures" to enforce a ceasefire and political settlement."It is Russian weaponry which is keeping Assad in place. Russia has invested deeply in Syria, both in terms of arms exports and broader infrastructural projects and the search for oil and gas. Of course, the importance of the naval base at Tartous should also not be underestimated," he said.But Spyer thinks Moscow and other allies of Assad "apparently believe that the regime stands a good chance of coming through this and now has the upper hand. So why should they do their US regional rivals a favor and make themselves look weak by abandoning a client?"