For years, Israel and Iran have been preparing for the moment when the two adversaries will enter a direct conflict. Sworn enemies, the armies of both countries have trained for such a scenario. The twin assassinations of two prominent anti-Israeli terrorist leaders just hours apart earlier this week have brought this scenario the closest it has ever been before.
Both leaders, Fuad Shukur of the Lebanese-based Hezbollah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, were killed less than 12 hours apart. Israel took responsibility for Shukur’s death in Beirut and has not done so for Haniyeh but is likely believed to be behind the killing which took place on Iranian soil.
Iran’s leadership immediately vowed to take revenge.
Tensions have been mounting since. Hours after the assassination, airlines began canceling their flights to both Israel and Lebanon. Foreign governments are urging their citizens to leave the region immediately.
Israel has been fighting a war against Hamas for almost 10 months, since the group carried out a surprise attack against the Jewish state on October 7. Immediately after, Iran’s other proxies join the offensive on Israel. It has since been under attack from Hezbollah on its border with Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria together growing unrest in the Palestinian-controlled territories of the West Bank. All of these are instigated by Iran which has been funding and training these groups for decades, grooming them for the day Tehran will launch an all-out attack on Israel.
“Since the beginning of the war, I have made it clear that we are in a fight against Iran's axis of evil. This is an existential war against a stranglehold of terrorist armies and missiles that Iran would like to tighten around our neck,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a briefing held Wednesday from the military headquarters in Tel Aviv. “Challenging days are before us. Since the attack in Beirut, we have heard threats from all sides. We are prepared for any scenario, and we will stand united and determined against any threat. Israel will exact a very heavy price for aggression against us from whatever quarter.”
The army Home Front Command, in charge of outlining defense directives for civilians, has yet to change its guidelines encouraging Israelis to maintain their routines.
“Iran has a wide range of options for their retaliation,” said Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, from Misgav Institute for National Security and former head of the Research Division in Israeli military intelligence. “All the sides understand that the chances of this conflict to deteriorate into a full-scale regional war are not small, despite everyone saying they have no interest in this.”
Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war against each other. Israel’s military is believed to be behind hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets in the Middle East, in addition to cyberattacks against major infrastructure in the Islamic Republic. Iran is believed to be behind attacks against Israeli-operated oil tankers, attempts to abduct and kill Israelis in countries like Cyprus and Turkey in recent months and the steady supply of weapons to its proxies.
The shadow war transformed earlier this year in April, when Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel. Firing more than 300 missiles and suicide drones at the country, it was a departure from its doctrine of indirectly attacking Israel through its many proxies situated on the borders of the Jewish state. Iran’s assault was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. It was the closest the two countries have been to a direct confrontation after decades of tensions and accusations.
“This marked a new phase in the conflict between Israel and Iran with the direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil,” Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran, from the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University told The Media Line. “From the minute this option was added to the toolbox of responses, it is much easier to use again.”
Bracing for an Iranian attack
Israelis are now bracing themselves for an Iranian attack which could then result in a larger regional conflict.
According to Zimmt, the chance of Iran not responding with an attack is slim.
“The big question is what the ramifications of such an attack will be and if, similar to April, it will be contained in a minor way,” he added. “If Israel will be dragged into a wider conflict, the more substantive threat is from Hezbollah, but a multi-front confrontation is definitely on the agenda.”
Iran’s spring attack on Israel was largely thwarted by the Israeli military, together with a regional coalition including American and British forces. Iran has the ability to strike again and will likely do so, aiming to yield a better result than the previous attempt.
“This time we might see a joint attack from Iran with other proxies,” said Zimmt. “Iran will likely use UAVs and cruise missiles but will likely do so from a wider geographic area than it did in April when Iran launched its attack from the same area.”
“If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday. “You saw us do that in April, you can expect to see us do that again.”
Israel’s ability to thwart the previous Iranian attack was also due to the fact that it was an isolated Iranian attack that did not involve any other actors, allowing Israel to focus on one threat.
Adding to the threats are the Houthi rebels, who have yet to retaliate for Israel’s strike against its main lifeline, the port of Hodeida, last month.
While Iran is considered Israel’s archenemy, Hezbollah is viewed by Israel as its most formidable and immediate threat. After months of contained exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah, this could be the tipping point.
Defense analysts estimate Hezbollah has accumulated around 150,000 rockets, all with Iranian assistance. The terrorist organization is also believed to have improved its precision missile abilities and has thousands of highly trained operatives ready to attack Israel.
The multilayered Israeli air defense systems, considered to be highly sophisticated, will likely have difficulty fending off barrages of thousands of rockets every day in the event of a war with Hezbollah.
“Israel has invested years in developing abilities in systems that are meant to deal with such a reality,” Kuperwasser told The Media Line. “No country is ever prepared for every single extreme scenario.”
In recent years, Israel’s air force is believed to be behind hundreds of strikes that have targeted Hezbollah’s weapons. Yet success appears to be limited and the huge arsenal of rockets is also widely intact as demonstrated in the last 10 months. This effort has been part of an Israeli-Iranian shadow war that has been going on in the past two decades. In addition to Israeli airstrike, the Jewish state is believed to be behind cyberattacks against major infrastructure in the Islamic Republic. Iran is believed to be behind attacks against Israeli-operated oil tankers, attempts to abduct and kill Israelis in countries like Cyprus and Turkey in recent months and the steady supply of weapons to its proxies.
In the more distant past, Iran has exacted its retribution on Israeli targets abroad. Its proxies have perpetrated attacks against Israeli embassies and Jewish targets abroad, killing many. Those proxies have also targeted American soldiers around the world.
Israel has not acknowledged its role in the death of Haniyeh, distancing itself from the operation it is widely believed to be behind. Iran, which holds Israel responsible, will have a tough time swallowing its pride in light of such an attack in its capital on the day of the swearing in of its new president.
“The Iranian willingness to take risks, at the price of an escalation, is higher than before. Not only because of the latest events but because of the feeling of increased confidence and identification of Israeli weakness and therefore things that in the past seemed impossible have now become more and more of an option.”
After 10 months of war, Israel is on edge. The military stretched out to its maximum capabilities, the negotiations on the release of the hostages being held by Hamas endless, and the fighting in Gaza still ongoing.
“The current tensions should not divert Israel’s attention from its main effort to subdue Hamas and create the conditions to release the hostages in a way that will provide a response to Israel’s security and not destabilize it,” Kuperwasser summarized. “Afterward, Hezbollah and Iran should be taken care of.”
This is not just in Israel’s control and the coming hours and days will determine whether Israel can operate in that order or not.