Iran’s Zarif in Russia and China for strategic diplomatic push
Iran’s goal is to conduct strategic dialogue with major non-western countries, including Russia, India and China, positioning itself as part of a large system of countries.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANChina's Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during a meeting at the Diaoyutai state guest house in Beijing, China December 31, 2019;Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif react as they arrive for a (photo credit: REUTERS/EVGENIA NOVOZHENINA/NOEL CELIS/POOL)
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has had a busy 48 hours. He flew to Russia on Monday where he met with his Russian counterpart and then headed to China for what he says are talks aimed at strategic-level cooperation between Iran and China. Less noticed is Iran’s outreach also to India, with bilateral meetings and then talks in Oman with India, discussions about a port deal at Chabahar and meetings in Malaysia and Japan. In short: Iran’s December was one off its most successful diplomatic campaigns in recent memory and it went largely unnoticed.Iran’s goal is to conduct strategic dialogue with major non-Western countries, including Russia, India and China, positioning itself as part of a large system of countries that it hopes will help challenge US hegemony. A naval drill over the weekend with Russia and China was part of this as well as Iran’s push with Oman for a maritime agreement and work on Gulf security.In Russia, Zarif mocked the US attacks on Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq. He called US actions “defensive warmongering” and said the US was acting thousands of miles from home. Iran and Russia are working together on Syria, he said, and it was time to work together in the Persian Gulf. “Next stop: China,” he tweeted. Before leaving, he told reporters that Iranian-Chinese relations are strategic and that it was his 28th visit to Russia in six years. He spoke of the naval drills as evidence that “Iran is ready for maintaining navigations freedom” in the Straits of Hormuz. In the past Iran has threatened to close the straits, mined ships in the Gulf of Oman, harassed US ships and seized a British ship.For Russia’s part, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was concerned about Western attempts to exacerbate tensions in the Gulf. Russia critiqued EU countries for inconsistencies in dealing with Iran on the nuclear deal.In China, Zarif met with Wang Yi, his Beijing counterpart. They discussed strengthening strategic cooperation. China says it wants to work more with Iran and is hoping for stability in the Middle East and for the continued adherence to the Iran Deal.Iran is also working on consultations with India and bilateral agreements. That includes the development of the Shahid Behesthi Port in Chabahar and the Trilateral Transit Agreement between India, Iran and Afghanistan. Zarif was last in India in May for talks. India’s Minister for External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Iran on December 22 and met with Zarif. His visit included the 19th India-Iran Joint Commission and included discussions about other issues with Iran. The Chabahar port is the main initiative which is an economic life-line for Afghanistan and can aid all three countries.On Tuesday, the Indian minister and Zarif went to Oman to meet Oman’s Foreign Minister Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah. The sides agreed on future maritime cooperation. The visit to Oman came in the wake of Omani meetings with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a visit by Abdullah to Iran on December 2.Iran also notched other diplomatic wins recently. President Hassan Rouhani flew to Malaysia on December 17 to meet with Qatari, Turkish and Hamas representatives and discuss a global Islamic currency. From the summit in Malaysia he flew to Japan. At the same time Zarif was in Doha, Qatar where he spoke at the Doha Forum, where dozens of representatives from countries around the world were present. In Qatar, Zarif met with Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Undersecretary-General for Political and Peace-building Affairs on December 15.While Zarif has played the strategic dialogue ambassador of Iranian charm, Rouhani has warned the Middle East that the Iran Deal is on the verge of collapse and that Iran is on a wartime footing. He has also proposed a “HOPE” coalition in the Gulf seeking to extend Iran’s maritime power.Meanwhile, the US is playing catch-up. After US airstrikes targeted Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria, killing dozens, Pompeo phoned the UN secretary-general and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Then, he called Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the key official in the UAE, and then called Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Pompeo says the US will continue to counter Iran’s destabilizing behavior. “The US will respond decisively to Iranian attacks,” he said.
But for Iran, the US threats are more an annoyance when Tehran has global ambitions that it thinks it is fulfilling. After the US attacks in Iraq, which came in response to a rocket attack on US forces, Iran feels it can respond at a time of its choosing. For now, it wants to push Iraq into believing its sovereignty has been violated and push the US into leaving. Iran is playing the long game, seeking a triumvirate of power linking it to Russia, India and China, the rising powers. It believes it has outplayed the Europeans and that the US is withdrawing from the Middle East.
