60% of Iowan Democrats undecided over which candidate can beat Trump
"It's a mess" say local democrats, as the four front runners cluster in the polls.
By DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDSFormer Vice President Joe Biden speaks as South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Senator Bernie Sanders all listen during the Democratic U.S. presidential candidates 2020 campaign debate at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, California, U.S., December 19, 2019(photo credit: MIKE BLAKE/ REUTERS)
Iowan Democrats are woefully undecided, verging on anxiety and even panic for some, as they struggle to settle on a candidate who can beat Donald Trump in the Presidential Election this November.At this point in the 2016 elections just 14 percent of Iowan democrats had not yet decided between the top two contenders, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. But with just weeks to go until the caucus on February 3rd, 60% of likely Democratic caucus-goers still had not made up their minds, nearly half said they could be persuaded to back another candidate, and 13% said they had no first choice, a Des Moines Register / CNN poll has found.“It’s a mess,” Laura Hubka, the chairwoman of the Howard County Democrats told the New York Times. “Everyone is so all over the place.”The Des Moines poll, the first for over two months found strongest support for Sanders, with 20% of likely caucus-goers backing him, an increase of five points since the last poll in the state. Hot on his heels were Elizabeth Warren on 17%, Pete Buttigieg at 16%, and Joe Biden at 15%.However, a Monmouth University poll released three days later flipped the running with a five percent margin of error, placing Biden at the top of the pack with backing from 24% of likely caucus-goers, followed by Sanders on 18%, Buttigieg on 17% and Warren on 15%.“Of paramount importance is beating Trump, of course,” family physician Gary Mansheim, told the New York Times at a Warren event in December. “Warren and Sanders speak to the Democratic heart, but the brain says you need someone that is more moderate to beat Trump. So that brings us back to the more moderates — Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.”Similarly, Bob Wymore, a retired truck driver, told the NY Times that he liked both Sanders and Warren, but was "kind of leaning toward Biden because he’s more moderate and that’s probably what we need, like a lot of people think.”When asked by the Register pollsters how important it was to pick a candidate capable of defeating Trump, three in four of those who are backing Biden and Buttigieg said it was a crucial factor, but only 54% of Sanders' supporters, and 53% of Warren's thought the same.Elementary school principle Randy Farnum told the NY Times that, for him, it would come down to either Sanders or Warren, but that he was waiting to see their "final plans" before making a decision.“It’s coming down to the amount of decisions we have to make very rapidly in the next year for the world,” he said.
The constantly changing tides within the polling reflect the parries and retreats placed by each candidate as they each line up to attack the front-runner of the moment, casting doubt on that person in the minds of voters. Tuesday's debate in Des Moines is likely to shake up the race again, with competition fierce between the remaining candidates as they go into the final weeks of the campaign.Further confusing matters is the lack of clarity from leading state Democrats. State auditor Rob Sands and Representative Cindy Axne are among those who have yet to declare, as is J.D. Scholten, the Democratic candidate for congress running against Representative Steve King.In an interview, Scholten said he had expected to make an endorsement this month. “I thought I’d have a clearer picture,” he said. “The lanes aren’t as clear as what I think people thought they would be.”For Iowans, this is translating into a heavy sense of responsibility thanks to an awareness that the decision they make in February could steer the remainder of the campaign, and ultimately determine who goes up against Trump in the race for the White House.“They’re worried about the country and they don’t want to make a mistake — they’re feeling the pressure,” said party activist Penny Rosfjord, another undecided.“The number of undecideds truly has as much to do with the stakes as with anything else,” Sue Dvorsky, a former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party told to the NY Times.Dvorsky said she and her husband Bob, a former state senator, expect to remain undecided until caucus night.“Very honestly, our decision will be made based on what is happening in the room that night,” she said. “We are center-left people,” and therefore more naturally drawn to those candidates, she explained, but added: “This year there is great uncertainty. I don’t know if Biden’s going to be viable that night.”And for Otley resident Lois Grier and her husband Ted, both of whom attended a Sanders rally and plan to hear Buttigieg also, the usual political matters have to take a back seat in this race. Summing up the mood of the state, she says: “It’s important to narrow it in to somebody that can beat Trump.“A lot of the candidates are saying the right things. But are they strong enough?”
