Republicans, Democrats traded one in ten voters over last two years - poll
Younger voters and those with less formal education are less likely to be consistent in their support for one party, the study found.
By DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDSJohn Lenges, who changed parties to vote Republican in 2016, and his sister Jeanne Coffin cheer at a rally in Orlando, Florida, June 18, 2019(photo credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)
Nearly one in ten people who backed the Republicans in 2018 have since switched their allegiance to the Democrats - but an identical proportion of Democrat voters have made the opposite transition resulting in little overall shift in support for the two parties, a Pew Research Center study has found.The study, conducted through the Center's American Trends Panel tracked responses from 11,077 registered voters over five occasions between September 2018 and July 2020 to arrive at the result. It found that in both cases, 9% of voters who either affiliated with or leaned toward each party had flipped to the other during that period.If those trends hold steady into the presidential election in November, they would translate into 5.9 million former Democrat voters casting a ballot for the Republican Party candidate, against 5.7 million former Republican voters shifting their support to the Democrat candidate.However, the study found that voters who remain firm in their party affiliation are more politically engaged than those who change allegiance. Of both Republican and Democrat voters who reported remaining loyal to their chosen party across all five surveys, a majority (61% and 63% respectively) reported following what is going on in government and politics "most of the time." By contrast, just 36% of Republican backers who had switched during that time, and 41% of Democrat backers who had gone the other way reported the same.The trend held true with the more politically engaged respondents also: 49% of Republican voters who had remained with the party, and 52% of Democrat voters who had done the same reported that they talk politics nearly every day or at least a few times a week. Of those who were voting Republican now but had indicated otherwise previously, 29% reported the same, and for Democrat-backing switchers the figure was 35%.Younger voters and those with less formal education are also less likely to be consistent in their support for one party, the study found.Furthermore, the headline figures showing very little overall movement conceal larger shifts within demographics. For example, among white voters without a college degree, the shift is weighted toward the Republican Party: 12% of these voters who backed the Democrats in 2018 now favor the GOP, against 6% who have traveled in the other direction.Conversely, among white college graduates the reverse is true: 8% of those who backed the Republicans in 2018 are now minded to vote Democrat, against 4% who reported the opposite.Among non-white voters the shift is weighted toward the Democrats: 21% of Republicans in that demographic have shifted to the Democrats, against 10% who have moved the other way - although the demographic leans heavily to the Democrats, making the Republican base within the group much smaller by comparison (87% of black women vote or lean toward the Democrats, while only 7% of black women vote or lean toward the Republicans).The study's authors point out that the demographic shifts are part of a long-term trend that has been taking place across America. "White voters with no college degree have been moving steadily toward the Republican Party over the past 10 years, and in this analysis white voters with no college degree who were Republicans in 2018 are significantly more likely to have remained consistent Republicans throughout this time period than white Democrats with no college degree were to have remained Democrats (84% vs. 78%)," they noted.
