Why Israel stopped worrying about Palestinians copying Kosovo - analysis
The bigger reason why Israel was wary of ties with Kosovo was because of a concern over setting a precedent for the Palestinians.
By LAHAV HARKOVKosovo's President Hashim Thaci attends a ceremony of security forces a day before parliament's vote on whether to form a national army, in Pristina, Kosovo, December 13, 2018.(photo credit: REUTERS)
Israel’s recognition of Kosovo on Friday came as somewhat of a surprise, after over a decade of ignoring overtures from Pristina.When Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, Jerusalem declined to follow the lead of many of its allies, including the US, in recognizing it. Israel was among other countries involved in territorial disputes, such as Spain, Cyprus and Georgia, in declining to recognize the fledgling Balkan state.Kosovo offered to open an embassy in Jerusalem in exchange for recognition in 2018, but Israel’s official position was that it did not want to risk its strong relationship with Serbia – though plenty of countries that recognize Kosovo still have good ties with Belgrade.The bigger reason why Israel was wary of ties with Kosovo was because of a concern over setting a precedent for the Palestinians.Kosovo unilaterally declared independence, and for Israel to support them doing so could be seen as a nod to other countries to recognize a Palestinian state.Officially, the Palestinian Authority does not recognize Kosovo, with its Ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour arguing the Palestinians are under a “typical foreign occupation which cannot be compared to the issue of Kosovo.”But in the immediate aftermath of Kosovo declaring its independence, PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s adviser Yasser Abed Rabbo said the Palestinians should unilaterally declare independence, as well.“Kosovo is not better than us,” he said. “We deserve independence even before Kosovo.”In practice, the PLO declared a state decades ago, and the PA followed Kosovo’s model to unilaterally join numerous international organizations.Much has been made about US President Donald Trump inserting Israel into a Kosovo-Serbia agreement that really had nothing to do with Israel. It’s clear that the signing at the Oval Office of a relatively unmonumental economic agreement between the two countries is part of Trump’s election campaign efforts to show he is a dealmaker. And with such a positive response to normalization from Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Trump signaled to his Evangelical base once again that he is a friend of Israel.
Yes, Israel wants to make its greatest ally happy. But that still doesn’t answer the question of what this agreement means for Israel and the Palestinians.What changed on Friday that made Israel give up on this principled position?Call it diplomatic realism.The past few weeks have shown that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes in the adage that a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.First he gave up – temporarily or not, as remains to be seen – on extending Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria, something that was unclear the Trump administration would approve, though, paradoxically, part of their own peace plan.Instead, Netanyahu went for something concrete that he could gain for Israel immediately, peace with the United Arab Emirates.Now, Netanyahu once again is giving up on a theoretical benefit – not sending the wrong message – for something Israel wants now, two more embassies in Jerusalem, including the first from a Muslim-majority country.Admittedly, the “bird in the hand” view of things is one the White House has been pushing. The Trump administration preferred to avoid the international backlash of supporting annexation so close to the presidential election, and went with moves that can present Trump as a peacemaker.But, as we saw with the Iran deal, Netanyahu knows how to stand up for Israel’s interests when he feels they are under threat, even when it means taking on American policies. Which means that in this case, his analysis was that the benefit outweighs the costs.When it comes to Kosovo setting a precedent for the Palestinians, the damage is already done; “Palestine” is already a member of myriad international organizations.Plus, there is a key difference between other countries recognizing a Palestinian state at this juncture, and Israel recognizing Kosovo now. The leaders of Kosovo and Serbia were in the same room negotiating with each other, something you could not have said about Netanyahu and Abbas since 2009. Kosovo and Serbia signed agreements to cooperate. It’s not a final status agreement, but it’s a step in that direction.Israel can now point out that this agreement included their recognition of Kosovo, which means it’s not a unilateral move at all.And in exchange, Israel gets two more embassies in Jerusalem.For anyone who shrugs off this move, they can only look at the “concern and regret” of the foreign policy mandarins in Brussels to see that it is enough of a significance to turn the tide in Israel in Kosovo’s favor.
