Donald Trump-America’s greatest President or America’s Most destructive President
The USA just elected their 45 th president . We have been hearing that the world is about to come to an end. This obviously will not happen. There are many potential outcome of the next 4 years ( or eight years). As a technology futurist at IBM , Bell Communications Research and Bell Laboratories , I thought it would be interesting to apply those methodologies I have used to forecast new technology to how the USA will look in extremes over the next 4 years.
Donald Trump – The Greatest USA President.
President Trump realized it is about the economy. He will be using his business acumen to transform the business/government landscape. Through new tax laws and incentives, American business' will bring back 100’s of billions of dollars back to the United States that are squirreled away in foreign countries. This will be windfall for the USA economy. It will allow millions of jobs to be created to improve the USA infrastructure and inner cities. Traditional unemployment will drop to 2.5 from 5 percent, but more importantly the long term unemployment that is about 10 percent will be reduced to 5 percent.
Global Trade, a big part of the economy, will not come a screeching halt as detractors claim . Yes many of the Global trading agreements will be modified to reflect the needs of the US economy. The world will not turn it’s back on the powerful American economic engine. Compromises will be cut with all our trading partners.
New trading agreements , infusions of 100’s of billions of American companies foreign money, infrastructure and inner city spending will crank the GDP up to 4% by 2018 and to 6 % by 2020. The Dow hits 25000 by June of 2020.
On foreign policy and security story will be just as rosy. Donald Trump will learn from the Israeli government on how to build a real and virtual wall to protect the population. 11 million illegal immigrant are not deported, but a million criminals are captured and are deported. New immigration laws are created , no amnesty but a legal path to citizenry is created.
Iranian sanctions will be strengthened. Political unrest will grow dramatically in Iran and the US will provide support to the Iranian population who will overthrow the current regime. The Kurds will get their country. Jerusalem becomes the recognized capital of Israel. Gaza becomes the semi democratic Palestinian state. Palestinians living in Israel will become citizens of Israel and prosper tremendously. Russia and USA collaborate to destroy ISIS. But USA draws a line with Russia by strongly supporting NATO and Russia back off threatening the Baltic states.
Donald Trumps gets reelected in 2020.
Donald Trump – The most destructive President of the USA.
President Trump realized it is about the economy. However American businesses do not trust the Trump administration and are very reluctant to move their foreign cash reserves back to the US. Conservative Republicans fight the Trump infrastructure plans and Democrats see an opportunity to undercut the new administration blocking plans to stimulate the economy through infrastructure spending . The Alt Right gets very bold .White supremacists and anti-Semites come out of the woodwork. Black Churches are burned , swastikas on synagogues and Jewish businesses become common. The Alt left energizes the college population and , civil war becomes a possibility. The Trump administration unsuccessful tries to quell the unrest from the Alt Right and Alt Left.
In order to try to bring jobs back to America, the Trump administration, decided to take a very strong position on trade. But they over played their hand . China, India, Mexico , and Canada put up a united front . The administration put on 35 % import tax on some of their trading partners. Imports and exports drop 33 percent . Dow goes down to 12000 by 2018. A recession emerges in 2018. Republicans lose the Senate and barely holds onto the Congress.
On the foreign policy front, Putin was able to play President Trump. They work together to eliminate ISIS. But Iran and Russia are able to save Assad. And Russia continues to cause havoc in the Baltic states. Iran continues to support terrorism in the Sunni states. China also shows it's muscle in the South China Sea. Turkey also flexes it’s muscle with the Kurds and openly supports Hamas. Given all the other economic issues , the Trump administration turn to isolationism. Iran ,Hezbollah , Hamas and Fatah attack Israel .
Donald Trump does not run for President in 2020.
Two very different views. Neither will probably occur. But, we should all hope and pray, especially here in Israel that Donald Trump gets as close as possible to become the greatest US President , as the other extreme alternative will set the world back decades.