Considering the need for a free socio-political discussion about Israel's future, at the same time, it is important to monitor the intensification of the conflict between the followers of the image of the future, which causes risks of public anomie up to a civil conflict - a type of "religious war", in which, as we know, the losers - are destroyed.In November 2023, the Mind Pool scientific research center (Tel Aviv), at the invitation of the Dor Moriah association, conducted a public opinion survey among the Israeli public to examine their position regarding Israel's war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 1004 people over the age of 18 were surveyed.
When asked about Israel's perspectives after this war, 28% of respondents were in favor of the "two states for two peoples" model and almost the same number (25%) were in favor of annexing the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, as well as the Gaza Strip. However, 25% of respondents had difficulty answering this question.A survey conducted in January by the Geocartography research center showed similar results to the survey. In it, the largest part of the respondents (28%) supported the idea of annexing the territories of Judea and Samaria as well as the Gaza Strip with the deportation of Palestinians to Arab countries. 23% of the respondents were in favor of a "two states for two peoples" solution, and 11% would prefer to continue the policy that existed before the war. However, a slight trend of an increase in the share of annexation supporters is evident.
At the end of March 2024, during a survey conducted by the Geocartography research center, the experts of the association Dor Moriah replaced the possibility of "annexation" with the possibility of building a "confederation" (in which the Palestinian territories are part of Israel as autonomous territories), the rest of the wording remained the same .The future of Israel as a confederation is considered a high and very high probability for a total of 25% of the respondents, which is only 5% more than the chance of establishing a Palestinian state (20%).
53.9% of the respondents talk about the low and very low probability of creating a confederation after the war with Hamas. However, even more of those surveyed doubt the idea of establishing a Palestinian state 66.5%.From the point of view of Israel's own interests (according to most Israelis), neither the creation of a confederation nor the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is an interesting form of escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict for the country
In terms of Israel's own interest (according to most Israelis), the establishment of a confederation or the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is not an interesting way for the state to relieve the Arab-Israeli conflict.But the Israeli lack of interest in the creation of a Palestinian state, according to Israelis, is higher (68%) than in relation to the establishment of a confederation in which the Palestinian territories are part of Israel 54.9%
The share of those who agree with the establishment of a confederation is slightly higher than the share of those who agree with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state (23.9% compared to 15.4%). Therefore, it is not that the establishment of a confederation is a desirable form of solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, but it is less objectionable.
It should be noted that a survey conducted in December 2023 by the Geocartography research center commissioned by the Dor Moriah association with 1,005 Israelis over the age of 18 showed that according to the Israelis, the US is interested in turning Israel into a confederation - this is what 18.2% of respondents believe.
What conclusion can be drawn from the results of these surveys?
In our opinion, the issue of some form of inclusion of Palestinian territories in the State of Israel is gaining strength in public consciousness. Variations of this process can be different. Here is the not very popular idea of one country for two peoples, and a confederal structure with limited sovereignty of the confederate subjects. It is impossible to eliminate the possibility of "leaving everything as it is and simply strengthening and expanding the settlement system".Which option will calm Israeli society depends to a large extent on which decision-making mechanism the Israeli politicians will choose.
Who depends on what?
In December 2023, the Geocartography research center, commissioned by the Dor Moriah association, conducted a survey with the participation of 1,005 Israelis over the age of 18. To the question "Which leader do you think has a significant influence on the agenda in the Middle East?" 59% of respondents answered: US President Joe Biden.
In second place, with 34.5% of the polled votes, is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Russian President Vladimir Putin took third place (31.3%), followed by the ruler of Saudi Arabia in fourth place (16%). Donald Trump is in 6th place (9.9%).
In January 2024, a similar survey was conducted, and the question "Which politicians will have the greatest influence in the Middle East after Israel's war with Hamas?" - The respondents again placed Joe Biden in first place (41%). In second place is Donald Trump (31%), third place was shared by B. Netanyahu and V. Putin (each - 26%). The leader of Saudi Arabia came close to them, with an influence of 23% of respondents.
A survey conducted at the end of March 2024 showed a surprising fact: the three leading leaders influencing the establishment of a Palestinian state remained almost unchanged. Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. Behind them, by a certain margin, come Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump. Israelis name Joe Biden (39.6%) and Vladimir Putin (29.1%) as the key figure capable of promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state. Also, a certain place in this political direction is given to Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (15.8%), Benjamin Netanyahu (14.8%), Donald Trump (14.2%).