As the US said it would equip Israel with the THAAD anti-ballistic missile system this week, Israel is facing a potential shortage of defense system interceptor missiles against possible attacks from Iran and its proxies, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, with the information confirmed by The Jerusalem Post.
If Iran and Hezbollah attack Israel simultaneously, Israel’s air defenses may be overwhelmed, Dana Stroul, a former senior US defense official, explained to FT. “If Iran responds to an Israel attack and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel’s air defenses will be stretched,” Stroul said.
Stroul also noted that the US cannot indefinitely sustain supply efforts for both Ukraine and Israel, as resources are reaching a critical limit.
Boaz Levy, CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries, the state-owned manufacturer of Arrow interceptors for shooting down ballistic missiles, told FT that the company was operating on triple shifts to keep the production lines active.
Production line working around the clock
“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy explained. He further noted that the production time for interceptor missiles was “not a matter of days.” While the size of Israel’s interceptor missile stockpiles is not accessible to the public, Levy emphasized that “it is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”
The THAAD system would make it less necessary for Israel to use up as many of its Arrow interceptors to defend against ballistic missiles.
On April 13–14 and October 1, Iran fired around 120 and 180 ballistic missiles, respectively, at Israel. The vast majority of the interceptors used against these threats were carried out by the Arrow missile system.
Estimates for the cost of each Arrow interceptor range between $2-3 million (there are different kinds of interceptors), meaning that between the April and October Iranian attacks, Israel could have easily used between $600-900 million in Arrow interceptors to defend itself (likely more since sometimes the IDF has admitted to firing more than one interceptor at the same target).
Moreover, Israel has been using Arrow interceptors regularly to shoot down ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthis and occasionally to shoot down missiles from Hezbollah.
Israel’s three-layered air defense has mostly succeeded in intercepting drones and missiles launched by Iran and its proxies since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War on October 7, 2023, including over 23,000 rockets from several fronts and around 1,200 drones. The Iron Dome shoots down short-range rockets from Gaza and Lebanon, David’s Sling intercepts heavier rockets and cruise missiles from Lebanon, and the Arrow system blocks long-range ballistic missiles mainly from Iran and Yemen, with a few from Hezbollah.
In April, with help from the US and other allies, Israel managed to stop 99% of an Iranian attack involving drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. However, on October 1, Iran penetrated Israel’s air defense more significantly, with hits at air force bases at Nevatim and Tel Nof and a hit near Mossad headquarters (foreign reports said as many as 30 missiles may have hit Nevatim).
Defense sources acknowledged that there are instances where Israel might decide not to shoot down even a ballistic missile due to the cost.
In contrast to the Arrow, Iron Dome interceptors cost much less, around $50,000, such that Israel is more prepared to mass produce them and fire more of them against the immense number of smaller and weaker rockets its adversaries have fired at it.
Still, given the 23,000 rockets fired at Israel as the war has gone on, the IDF has needed to be more conservative in using the Iron Dome, unless it is clear that they will land in a populated area.