Weekend closures only minimally effective at reducing infection – report

The study concluded that a full and prolonged closure is required to achieve the effect of significantly reducing infection.

By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN
Israelis, wearing face masks for fear of the coronavirus, shop for grocery at the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem on July 14, 2020. Israel has seen a spike of new COVID-19 cases bringing the authorities to reimpose restrictions to halt the spread of the virus (photo credit: OLIVIER FITOUSSI/FLASH90)
Israelis, wearing face masks for fear of the coronavirus, shop for grocery at the Mahane Yehuda market in Jerusalem on July 14, 2020. Israel has seen a spike of new COVID-19 cases bringing the authorities to reimpose restrictions to halt the spread of the virus
(photo credit: OLIVIER FITOUSSI/FLASH90)
Weekend closures will only result in a minimal reduction in infection, according to a study published Tuesday by the Intelligence Ministry’s data science lab, N12 first reported and The Jerusalem Post has independently confirmed.
The study, whose abstract was viewed by the Post, concluded that a full and prolonged closure is required to achieve the effect of significantly reducing infection.
The study found that if the current rate of infection continues, instituting a lockdown would reduce the infection rate on the days in which the lockdown is enacted by no more than 40%. In numbers, that is about 650 less people per day of closure over the weekend.
In the past week, the number of newly infected people was around 11,400. Which means that the weekly infection rate would drop by only 6% if a one-day closure is instituted.
As such, the ministry concluded that to achieve the desired results, a full and longer-term lockdown would be needed. Nonetheless, it offered two alternatives to such a scenario: closing on one or two weekdays, or dividing the population and locking down in shifts by days.
On weekdays, there is more activity in public spaces. Also, people travel on public transportation, which is a hot spot of infection but does not run on the weekends.
The Minister of Intelligence Eli Cohen (Likud), a former economy minister, is against a full lockdown to ensure that the economy continues to operate and improve.
Specifically, the study was carried out by the Intelligence Ministry’s new cutting-edge “Horizon Scanning Lab” in Tel Aviv. The Post recently became the first media outlet to visit this lab.
The Healthy Ministry reported Tuesday that nearly 2,000 people were diagnosed with the novel coronavirus in the last day. Around 7% of those screened tested positive.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.