Hours before an attack targeted a gate at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport and a nearby hotel, there had been warnings, but they were dismissed by some as a conspiracy.
The warnings of a terrorist threat were dismissed as too convenient, coming just days before the US had to leave Kabul. A threat would give Western countries that are trying to evacuate people an excuse to wrap things up sooner.
The “threat is real,” tweeted Colin Clarke, an expert on ISIS and terrorism and the director of policy and research at The Soufan Group.
The developing reports on Thursday evening, including graphic and horrid videos of the massacre caused by the attack, illustrate how the end of the US role in Afghanistan is now being paved in nightmarish blood. Weeks in which the US appeared to think that leaving could be done with no casualties, and that a newfound modus vivendi with the Taliban might even make peace possible, exploded on August 26.
The threat to the airport and the evacuation was known. ISIS in Afghanistan, often known as ISIS-K, was considered a threat, and there were warnings. What transpired was an attack that reportedly involved suicide bombers and shootings that massacred Afghans who were seeking to leave.
Tragically, the threats were dismissed by some people, including journalists, who claimed the timing appeared strange. Some had asked, Why would there suddenly be an ISIS threat when all had gone well the last several weeks?
It turned out the threat was very real. Thirteen US service members were killed, and at least 17 were wounded. Many other people were killed.
The attack came as US President Joe Biden’s administration was continuing to try to push its narrative that the Americans were not stranded in Kabul and that the evacuation had been a success. It had indeed been a success in a sense, as large numbers of people, up to 100,000, were able to leave Kabul.
But it would have been better to plan this than have to do it at the last minute. The Taliban had dictated terms to the US, demanding that it leave by August 31. The White House had stuck with its decision and was preparing to get several thousand US troops out by Monday.
Other fears remain in Kabul, besides the threat of more shooting attacks or bombings. Taliban members and others apparently shooting in the air have led to concerns about departing aircraft. A rocket attack was also feared.
Considering the huge number of Taliban checkpoints that have been reported in Kabul, and the difficulty that people trying to flee face getting to the airport, questions remain about how the attack on August 26 was carried out.
Its immediate effect remained unclear. With masses of people wounded and killed in the most sensitive area near the gate to the airport – where scenes of people waiting in sewage and pressing against a fence to get into the airport have been seen in recent days – it will be unclear how that area can be secured against future attacks.
THE MOTIVATIONS behind the attack are also worth questioning. ISIS has carried out many brutal attacks, including genocide, in the past. The terrorist organization is not averse to massacre and mass murder.
However, if the attack was carried out by ISIS, the reasoning and target may be less clear. It apparently was directed at killing as many Americans as possible.
Was it directed at the gate to the airport and the hotel and at foreigners who might have been in the area? Were they trying to get closer to US forces? Were they targeting crowds because they believed the crowds to be made up of either Shi’ites or Sunni “collaborators”?
ISIS is a jihadist extremist organization rooted in extremist Sunni supremacists. It massacred Shi’ites in Iraq in 2014, for instance. It remains to be seen if ISIS will provide a video and explanation.
The explanation may not matter as much as whether the various countries still present at Kabul’s airport will be able to secure themselves. This includes the US, UK, Qatar and apparently Turkey, which wants to play a role at the airport after the US leaves. There are other countries present as well.
If the airport’s perimeter security and the Taliban ring around it are penetrated by attacks, then it’s unclear how it can remain secure.
The threat of rocket fire is also a looming problem. How can flights take off if there is rocket fire? Is the goal of ISIS or those who carried out the attack to hand Washington one last blood-soaked message to illustrate how the US was defeated in Afghanistan? Many extremist groups around the world have been inspired by the Taliban victory.
From Gaza to Syria and Turkey, a narrative is emerging that the US has been defeated and soon other American allies will be defeated, including Israel. The attack on Kabul postponed the meeting between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Biden.
Some might see that as an add-on success of this narrative that portrays Israel as the “next” Afghanistan. As ridiculous as the comparison may be, it is being made by some commentators in regional media.
The next question is how Qatar and Turkey will react. They want to stay at the airport after the US leaves. But can they stay if there are more terrorist threats? If the threat of terrorism continues, that will be a serious question.
If it turns out that something more nefarious happened, such as the Taliban allowing the attack, then that will raise questions as well.
A third possibility is that the US and the Taliban and others may build on this attack to coordinate better security. This depends on how the US reacts and how the Taliban reacts. If there is an attempt to remove crowds from near the airport, and if the US increases the pace of removing its troops, then we could see one type of outcome.
If the US chooses to stay longer than 36 hours, as it has said it will, to continue evacuating people, then that may require even more coordination with the Taliban. The CIA director had met with the Taliban recently, reports indicated.
It’s unclear how the Taliban will play this. However, it is clear that their security did not prevent the attack. This bizarre scenario in which the Taliban and the US are on the same side against ISIS is not so far-fetched. That has already been alleged in previous years.
This attack is another nightmarish bookend to the US role in Afghanistan. Some want to downplay the symbolism of the Americans leaving Afghanistan.
But others want to make it appear as a crux moment, signaling the end of Washington’s role as global hegemon and clearly drawing a line in blood over the US attempt to leave quietly.