Turkey's nationwide local elections are on Sunday. The top prize, Istanbul, is seen as a bellwether for the opposition’s chances of taking power away from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in four years.
Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s surprise victory against Erdogan’s ally in 2019 made him one of the country's most popular politicians. He served the Turkish president his greatest defeat since coming into power.
The country’s largest city is also its economic engine, and the result is expected to have a major influence on Turkey’s future: either it will embolden Imamoglu to be a fierce challenger against the governing party in the 2028 presidential election or end any of his possible ambitions to lead the country and put the opposition into disarray.
Ilhan Uzgel, the deputy chairperson in charge of foreign affairs for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), told The Media Line the race for Istanbul holds special value for Erdogan.
“He wants to restore his prestige. That has both psychological and symbolic significance for Erdogan, and it’s important who controls Istanbul in Turkish politics, so Erdogan wants to get it back.”
Imamoglu is facing off against a former member of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s cabinet, Murat Kurum. Both sides have emphasized improving the city’s infrastructure and strengthening preparations fora feared earthquake.
The Turkish president has hit the campaign trail for Kurum, his former environment minister. He has criticized the CHP for squandering public funds while emphasizing the vast construction projects the city enjoyed under his party’s leadership.
“They do not understand Istanbul or its residents, but we are committed to the same principle we had 30 years ago, and we will continue serving our people,” Erdogan said at a rally last weekend in Istanbul.
The result is expected to be close. A Metropoll survey earlier this month gave Imamoglu a two- percent lead.
The biggest challenge for the CHP is winning with a split opposition. The Good Party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) have candidates running in this election, compared to 2019, when the groups withheld putting forward anyone who explicitly or tacitly supported Imamoglu.
In 2019, the CHP also won Turkey’s capital, Ankara, which is expected to be easier for the opposition to win. Aside from the collapse of the opposition alliance, another risk for the CHP is that an untested new chairman, Özgur Özel, is leading it.
Özel was booed by locals in the earthquake-hit city of Hatay while with the city’s mayor, a fellow CHP member, Lutfu Savas, over anger at his response to the disaster.
Risk of split between AKP, New Welfare Party
However, the vote on the right also risks splitting between the AKP and the New Welfare Party, a far-right Islamist group that has previously allied with Erdogan’s party.
Cem Çakmaklı, an assistant professor of economics at Koc University in Istanbul, told The Media Line that the elections could have a long-term impact on the country’s finances because of its potential influence over the next presidential elections.
If Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) takes back the city's power, it willsignal that its economic policies could last beyond 2028. The Turkish president has been accused of undermining the Central Bank and supporting unorthodox economic principles, such as keeping interest rates low during skyrocketing inflation.
While there has been a return to more orthodox policies since Erdogan’s re-election last year, the length of that trend is uncertain.
“The governing party is representing an economic policy, which was unsuccessful in the last three years,” said Çakmaklı. He believes the CHP represented a more rational economic mindset and policies based on institutions, while the AKP’s policies are based on the president’s opinions.
As mayor, Imamoglu has boosted tourism with cultural renovations in the city, improved infrastructures, making it easier for people to commute to work, and has increased child care support, making it easier for women to enter the labor force, Çakmaklı said.
Turkey’s most populous city holds particular weight for Erdogan. He grew up in a conservative, working-class neighborhood in the center of the city there, and hispolitical career began as mayor.
Before his party lost control of it, the Turkish president said, “Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey.” The CHP’s Uzgel said that the elections also show, especially since power has been more centralized with the president’s office.
“It shows that power can change hands democratically through elections, and it somehow balances Erdogan’s power,” Uzgel said. "It is critical and crucial for the opposition to hold the districts it controls after 2019; otherwise, there will be no checks and balances in this country.”