Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis arrived in Turkey on Monday for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as part of a series of diplomatic initiatives to foster improved relations between the longstanding adversaries. However, experts argue that the potential for enhanced relations will be constrained if fundamental issues remain unresolved.
Despite the latest diplomatic moves showing a positive direction in the ties between these two nations, Dimitriοs Makousis, geopolitical analyst at Strategy International Think Tank in Greece, tells The Media Line that, in essence, there has been no change regarding their relations.
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“The current improvement in relations is temporary and reflects a tactical maneuvering by Turkey,” he said, arguing that the declarations of peace and cooperation serve to buy Turkey the necessary time and tolerance for balancing relations between the West and the East. “This portrayal of amicability helps mitigate potential reactions from the EU and the US, given Turkey’s current foreign policy and inflammatory rhetoric,” he continued.
“Despite the current friendly atmosphere, differences in self-perception, ideas, expression, and aspirations persist, posing significant obstacles to potential convergence,” Makousis added.
Mustafa Metin Kaslilar, vice president of the Turkish Foreign Policy Research Center, says that tensions between both countries, stemming from the Cyprus issue, maritime borders, and energy tensions, have recently emerged as a result of gas exploration activities in certain areas in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“Especially during the period when Turkey was isolated, Greece turned this into an opportunity and signed certain agreements in the Mediterranean and tried to exclude Turkey from these agreements,” he told The Media Line.
Turkey strengthening relations with Egypt
However, Kaslilar notes that Turkey’s re-strengthening of its relations with Egypt in the Mediterranean and its Maritime Jurisdiction Agreements with Libya have brought Turkey back into the equation. “Greece knows very well that without Turkey, any agreement in the Mediterranean would be meaningless because Turkey is a major route in the Eastern Mediterranean and a transit center for energy routes,” he continued.
Greek geostrategic analyst and political risk consultant Vassilis Kopsachilis, also the director of the Verizon Project, added that Turkey continues viewing its relations with Greece and other neighbors under its revisionist agenda. “[Turkey] still occupies northern lands in Syria, Iraq, and Cyprus. And today, it still claims lands from Greece,” he told The Media Line.
Kopsachilis argues that Athens and Ankara are engaged in talks because both are NATO allies and have strategic importance for the US and NATO amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars. “Foreign pressure forces Greece and Turkey to be engaged in talks,” he added.
He explains that both countries need foreign investments and economic support to tackle their economic imbalances, an additional factor in their recent rapprochement. “Things are far away from warming relations,” he added.
Dr. Omar Munassar, a Turkey-based independent researcher and analyst of Middle East politics and security, tells The Media Line that internal politics must be considered when analyzing Turkish-Greek relations. “The current climate is conducive to building friendly relations between the two countries, especially in light of the JDP’s [Justice and Development Party] attempts to mend its ties with the EU, with Greece being one of the key issues affecting Turkey’s relations with it,” he said.
Munassar explains that significant progress in Turkish-Greek relations can be expected, given the political party’s decline in recent municipal elections and the preparation for a future phase of solving problems and focusing on the economy.
That being said, according to Kaşlilar, the main issues between both countries are still unresolved, and the warming of relations between them is mainly about a positive agenda. This means separating the countries’ mutual problems from areas of cooperation. “Problems persist, but areas of cooperation are emphasized,” he said.
According to Kopsachilis, certain areas of cooperation could mutually benefit both countries. He listed mitigating illegal migration and drug trafficking as a top priority and added that tourism and mutual investments are additional fields of activity in which improvement has been witnessed.
Meanwhile, Kaslilar believes that trade is one of the most promising fields of cooperation. He notes that Turkey’s current exports to Greece are $2 billion, and imports from Greece are $1 billion. “It is aimed to increase the trade volume from $4 billion to $10 billion,” he continued, adding that he also expects a rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in the field of nuclear energy.
Munassar says that despite various fields of cooperation, remaining key issues stand in the way of full rapprochement. “This dispute is a sensitive popular issue for both the Turkish and Greek peoples, which no leader in either country can compromise on. Therefore, this rapprochement between the two countries may reach a good stage and then recede at a certain point,” he said.
Makousis echoes this sentiment and says that resolving complex issues like maritime boundaries, the Cyprus question, and national airspace violations requires adherence to international law. However, he adds, “With the existing threat of the use of force and the questioning of Greece’s national sovereignty in the Aegean and Western Thrace, as it emerges from the Treaty of Lausanne, such a development seems impossible.”
“Genuine willingness from both parties, along with a shared understanding of the issues’ nature and scope, is essential for resolution,” Makousis concluded.