The tumultuous relationship between Israel and Turkey is heading for more turbulence as recent developments in Syria pitch the two countries against each other in what has the potential of developing into a direct armed confrontation.
On Wednesday, tens of thousands of people demonstrated against Israel in Istanbul, expressing solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza after almost a year and a half of a bloody war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has led Turkish anti-Israeli sentiment for years.
The war, which began with a surprise offensive by Hamas on the 7th of October, 2023, evolved into a larger regional war involving multiple fronts and changing the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Turkey has been at odds with Israel in the past, during previous confrontations it has had with Hamas. This time was different.
“Erdogan thought this war was just another round of violence,” Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey from the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line. “But after a few weeks, he realized Israel was waging an all-out war on Hamas. Erdogan, who is deeply influenced by the same Muslim Brotherhood ideology as Hamas, began to deteriorate the relationship with Israel.”
In one of the latest dramatic developments, the fall of the Bashar Assad regime last month has put the autonomy of US-backed Kurdish groups in Syria in question, as the Islamist rebels who overthrew Assad and are backed by Turkey threaten their territories. Israel has maintained covert relations with the Kurds throughout the years, seeing them as a possible ally against shared enemies.
Turkey is looking to further cement its influence in Syria, which shares a border with Israel. For years, despite being officially at war, the border was one of Israel’s quietest. Now, as Turkey inches closer to Israel geographically, this quiet could be interrupted.
“There is a chance of a future military confrontation between Israel and Turkey,” Prof. Efrat Aviv, an expert on Turkey from Bar-Ilan’s Department of General History and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Media Line. “This is unprecedented, as are all events witnessed in the region recently.”
Relations between Israel and Turkey
Relations thawed in 2017, but the cordiality didn’t last long.
In 2018, both sides recalled their ambassadors when tensions over the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem caused a rift between the two countries.
Afterward, another attempt to mend the relationship included President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Ankara in 2022.
Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza has led Erdogan to announce he was severing all ties with the Jewish state after both sides announced mutual trade barriers on each other in April of last year. Turkey also joined the South African petition accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) last year. Throughout the war, Ankara has supplied Palestinians in Gaza with tons of humanitarian aid.
Tourism, a major facet of the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Israel, has also almost disappeared. Once a top destination for Israelis, it is no longer. There are currently no direct flights between the countries, a route that was once one of the most frequent departing from Israel.
The latest developments in Syria, which have essentially left the country up for grabs, have Turkey and Israel both putting boots on the ground, each in different areas.
“Turkey is very adamant about its interests in Syria, and Erdogan wants to cement his influence there, aiming for the new government there to be under his sponsorship,” said Aviv. “This includes massive investment, including in Kurdish areas, in order for the Syrian society to be pro-Turkish. Turkey wants to completely quash Kurdish independence aspirations.”
While Israel has no official relations with the Kurdish minority in Syria or Turkey, it has maintained relations with the group as part of its interest to counter-balance Iranian influence in the region. This has often angered Turkey and Erdogan, who have hostile relations with the minority.
Erdogan and Netanyahu appear to be unable and unwilling to mend the relationship.
“As long as Erdogan is in power, nothing good will happen in the relationship, and it will only get worse. Even if he is replaced by a regime less critical of Israel, it will take time for the criticism towards Israel to decline,” said Aviv. “Turkish society will take time to change its toxic public opinion towards Israel as anti-Israeli and anti-Zionist sentiment in Turkey is very strong.”
Netanyahu supporters and his far-right government have also called for severing relations with Ankara.
But diplomatic relations are likely to remain.
“For Turkey, relations with Israel are important in order to retain access to the Palestinians both in Gaza and in the West Bank,” said Cohen Yanarocak. “For Israel, which is surrounded by enemies, it doesn’t need another enemy.”
A military confrontation between Turkey and Israel would be unprecedented, whether intentional or not. Israel, which is still in the midst of a war and fresh with the trauma of a shocking border assault by Hamas, has become less tolerant of the possibility of similar surprises on other borders.
While such a development would shock the region, it cannot be ruled out.
The option of Iranian proxies returning to its borders both in Lebanon and Syria is something Netanyahu and other officials have ruled out.
“Israel cannot allow Iran to be at its northern borders even at the cost of a confrontation with Turkey,” said Aviv. “Just as Turkey allowed itself to invade Syria, it cannot demand Israel to withdraw its forces from there, and Israel needs to protect its interests.”