Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation occurred as Jews flocked in droves away from the Liberal Party, which, in an attempt to please everyone, managed to please no one, explained Andrew Perez, a Canadian liberal strategist specializing in domestic politics.
Despite not being Jewish, Perez maintains close ties with the Jewish-Canadian community and is a vocal supporter of Israel, having visited the country just a few months ago.
Perez revealed in an interview that Members of Parliament from the three central provinces in Trudeau’s party reached a consensus that his leadership could no longer continue.
A brief history of relations between Jews and the Liberal Party
The Liberal Party has been losing Jewish community support quickly since October 7, 2023, although cracks in the relationship appeared earlier.
“Over the years, it was common for many Jews to support the Liberal Party,” Perez explained. “But recently [since October 7 and even a bit before], these Jews have been rapidly and in large numbers shifting to support the Conservative Party.
“The Jewish community felt that Trudeau’s response to the wild antisemitic demonstrations across Canada was too little, too late. Moreover, even when he did decide to respond, his reactions were perceived by Canadian Jews as words without actual actions.”
Perez pointed out that Jews were upset at the party, and mainly Trudeau, for both not working to fight antisemitism in Canada and for his general behavior and attitude reflected in different statements, particularly when he said Canada would abide by the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Trudeau ended up pleasing no one. Arab-Canadian voters felt he didn’t do enough to stop the war in Gaza, and Jewish Canadians felt abandoned since he didn’t give them the feeling that he was doing all possible to make them feel safe again in Canada, alongside him not taking a positive stance towards Israel during the ongoing war.”
Demographic shifts and political calculations
Perez emphasized that Canada’s shifting demographics have significantly influenced the Liberal Party’s changing priorities.
“Thirty or forty years ago, Canada’s Arab population was much smaller, while the Jewish community – though also small – held substantial political influence. Today, there are approximately two million Arab-Canadians compared to 400,000 Jews. As a center-left party, the Liberals try to be everything to everyone, but in practice, the larger Arab-Canadian population often takes precedence. That’s left many Jewish voters feeling overlooked.”
Trudeau’s rise and fall
The Liberal Party of Canada, once seen as the nation’s “natural governing party,” was on the brink of collapse in 2013. The party had just 35 seats in Parliament, making it the third-largest party, and many believed its days of dominance were over.
Then Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, took the reins.
With a campaign rooted in optimism and renewal, Trudeau led the party to a historic victory in the 2015 elections, winning 184 seats. His charisma and forward-looking message resonated with Canadians disillusioned by the previous government.
HOWEVER, after a strong first term, cracks began to show in Trudeau’s leadership following the COVID-19 pandemic.
His government struggled to handle economic challenges such as inflation and a worsening housing crisis. Public frustration grew as Canadians, emerging from pandemic lockdowns, faced rising food prices, housing shortages, a surge in homelessness, and an unpopular carbon tax that sparked nationwide protests.
Efforts to correct course in 2022, including cabinet reshuffles and improved public messaging, proved ineffective. By June 2023, the Liberals had lost control of key strongholds like Toronto and Montreal to the Conservatives.
The situation worsened in December 2023 when former finance minister Chrystia Freeland publicly criticized Trudeau after being dismissed via Zoom.
Freeland, once one of Trudeau’s closest allies and a key negotiator during talks with the Trump administration, wrote an open letter expressing her loss of faith in his leadership.
The fallout was swift. Secret meetings among Liberal MPs from Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada during the holiday recess led to a unified call for Trudeau’s resignation.
A late-December poll revealed historic lows: Liberal Party support had dropped to 16%, compared to the Conservatives’ 45%.
For many, this marked the end of Trudeau’s political career. The writing was on the wall, and Trudeau announced his resignation immediately after Parliament returned from its holiday break.
What’s next for the Liberal Party?
Perez described the decision to suspend Parliament until March 24 as unprecedented and indicative of the party’s turmoil.“This isn’t just a leadership crisis for the liberal party – it’s a leadership vacuum on a national level,” he said.The timing is especially concerning, given US President-elect Donald Trump’s public threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports.“If that happens, Canada could face its most severe economic crisis since World War II and a strong blow to Canada’s autonomy,” warned Perez.During this interim period, Trudeau will serve as caretaker prime minister until a new leader is chosen. However, this new leader will immediately face a vote of no confidence. The Conservative Party, the Bloc Québécois, and the New Democratic Party have all signaled their intent to back the vote, making the Liberals’ position even more precarious.Perez also voiced concern over the potential impact of new Liberal Party members, particularly those from the Arab community, on the upcoming leadership contest.Since party membership is free and open to anyone over 14, including non-citizens, some worry that new members could push candidates to adopt anti-Israel stances.“In trying to secure votes, leadership hopefuls might take positions that further alienate Jewish Canadians,” Perez explained.Despite the uncertainty, Perez remains hopeful that the Liberal Party can rebuild trust post-Trudeau.“The next three months are just the beginning. It will take time, but I hope the Liberal Party can rebuild its relationship with the Jewish community, alongside other social groups that lost their faith in the liberal party: business leaders, younger voters, et al. In the next upcoming months, I hope to see a beginning of small but meaningful steps.”