Trump admin has opportunity in Syria policy - analysis

The US has a rare opportunity to remake Syrian policy after a decade of anti-ISIS policy and after decades of the Assad regime controlling Damascus.

 U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as reporters ask questions aboard Air Force One during a flight from Las Vegas, Nevada, to Miami, Florida, U.S., January 25, 2025. (photo credit: REUTERS/LEAH MILLIS)
U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as reporters ask questions aboard Air Force One during a flight from Las Vegas, Nevada, to Miami, Florida, U.S., January 25, 2025.
(photo credit: REUTERS/LEAH MILLIS)

As US President Donald Trump’s administration begins to take its first strides in foreign policy, one of the places that will need focus is Syria.

It is becoming increasingly important because the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell on December 8. This hands the United States a major opportunity to remake policy regarding Damascus.

The US has a unique opportunity because Russia and Iran had been close to the Assad regime. Now the Russians and Iranians are gone from Damascus, at least temporarily, and the US and the West can have more potential influence there.

It is important to briefly review the last decades of Syria’s history to understand why it is so important.

Damascus was under the Assad regime for 50 years. This provided some continuity. The regime was backed by the Soviets in the 1970s and 1990s. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Assad regime considered working more closely with the West.

It played a role in the First Gulf War in 1991. Later, the Assad regime changed hands from Hafez al-Assad to his son, when Hafez died in 2000. After the September 11 attacks, Syria again positioned itself as a key player in the region.

A neighbor of NATO-member Turkey, Syria was affected when America toppled Iraq’s president Saddam Hussein.The Assad regime then cynically exploited the chaos in Iraq to enable extremists to flow down the Euphrates River valley into Iraq to fight Americans after 2003. However, Syria also pretended it was ready to reform.

 A Syrian anti government fighter shoots against a large banner bearing a picture of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, hanging on the facade of a municipal building in the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (credit: BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images)Enlrage image
A Syrian anti government fighter shoots against a large banner bearing a picture of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, hanging on the facade of a municipal building in the west-central city of Hama on December 5, 2024. (credit: BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images)

After Damascus was forced to withdraw from Lebanon in 2005, it began to rethink its policies. It welcomed US politicians, such as former president Jimmy Carter, Nancy Pelosi, and John Kerry. Syria even welcomed Turkish engagement to try to have discussions with Israel.

Things changed in the Arab Spring when protests erupted in Syria. The Assad regime cracked down with Iranian, Russian, and Hezbollah support. This led to Syria falling apart and becoming a chaotic state with numerous rebel groups.

ISIS rose in Syria and invaded Iraq in 2014, committing genocide in Sinjar.


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Shift in US policy

The rise of the Islamic State shifted US policy. America shifted from backing Syrian rebels, a policy supported by the CIA and State Department, to backing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria.

The Pentagon played a key role in backing the SDF as it defeated ISIS between 2015 and 2019.

This policy chaos during the civil war in Syria meant that the US did not know what to do in the country. US president Barack Obama’s administration was working on the Iran deal in 2015 and was happy to shift from backing Syrian rebels to backing the SDF.

The Trump administration considered shifting tack in 2018 and withdrawing from Syria. James Jeffrey, John Bolton, and other US officials who played a key role in Syria policy during the first Trump administration had different ideas about priorities in Syria.

Bolton and some officials wanted the US to stay in Syria to prevent Iran from taking over. Jeffrey, who was involved with Turkey’s concerns in Syria, also did not want Russia or Iran to take over more of Syria. However, Ankara wanted the US to leave because it opposed the SDF.

During US president Joe Biden’s administration, things stagnated. Syria became an orphan of US policy. The SDF, with between 600 and 2,000 US soldiers supporting it, has continued to control eastern Syria.

Israel helped oppose Iranian entrenchment in Syria with thousands of airstrikes aimed at preventing weapon transfers to Hezbollah. Iran sought to use Syria as a conduit for arms and a way to open a potential new front against Israel..

Major opportunity for the US

NOW THE Assad regime is gone, and the Russians and Iran are mostly gone from Syria as well. The new Syrian government headed by Abu Mohammed al-Julani has done a great deal of outreach to Western governments.

The US has a major opportunity now. Its administrations have also changed, enabling new thinking at the State Department and Pentagon. The State Department under Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Pentagon under Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth can help formulate a Syria policy.

The Trump administration considered withdrawing from Syria in 2018 and 2019. However, things may be different now.

The US has a rare policy opportunity in Syria because the country is a kind of blank slate. There are many opportunities for the US to act quickly to achieve things in Syria.

But some things have not changed. Turkey opposes the SDF. In its fight against ISIS, the US backed the SDF and also a small group in Tanf in Syria. There are ISIS detainees in eastern Syria in a camp called Al-Hol.

It’s important to deal with the ISIS threats in Syria and also in the Al-Hol camp. If the US leaves, then it is possible that the ISIS detainees could escape.

Meanwhile, the US is also a close partner of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. This government will not want the US to simply leave because it could cause chaos on its border. It would likely want the SDF part of Syria to share power with other Kurdish groups. This is a complex issue. The US could play a role.

Between 2016 and 2020, the Trump administration sought to withdraw from Syria because of concern over slow advances and endless wars.

As for Iran, the new administration is also keen to strategize its policy anew in this regard as well. Some may want to engage with Iran, others may not.

There are many moving parts to consider.

If the Trump administration does not focus on Syria, things will progress there anyway. The new government could forge ties with the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army in northern Syria, creating unity in the country.This could lead to the Syrian government being willing to take over the security of Al-Hol and take up the mantle of the anti-ISIS war.

This would render the US presence less necessary or lead to American intelligence cooperating with Damascus’ leadership.

US diplomats have generally preferred working with Damascus, viewing the SDF as primarily a military mission and a temporary, tactical, and even transactional relationship.

America has a rare opportunity to reshape Syrian policy after a decade of anti-ISIS policy and after decades of the Assad regime controlling Damascus. The large question is whether the new US administration wants to work quickly to do so.