Last week, Friedrich Merz, leader of the German conservative Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) party, won a significant victory and lost an important battle on his journey to become Germany’s next chancellor in the February 23 general election.
Both the victory and defeat had to do with the central issue of the electoral campaign: stopping mass immigration to Germany and, in other words, burying the open borders policy of the last conservative Chancellor, Angela Merkel, which has become a deadly burden not only to her party but to Germany as a whole.
Merz, who was forced out of the CDU’s leadership more than two decades ago and returned only after Merkel left politics in 2021, knows that escaping her shadow is crucial to restoring the conservative character of the CDU, thus allowing it to win an election comprehensively.
He wishes to stand against the ideological borders between the Right and Left and, at the same time, keep a line separating him from the far Right, whose voters he still wants to win again. But such a political juggling act is a perilous endeavor, as last week showed.
First, on Wednesday, Merz won a symbolic victory, which, in the context of German politics, was very necessary for him and his conservative camp to make it clear to the German voters that the CDU is officially getting rid of Angela Merkel’s legacy of the Willkommenskultur (Welcoming Culture) – opening Germany’s borders to mass immigration.
Only three and a half weeks before the general election, Merz broke a gentleman’s agreement with the other “democratic” center-left parties not to initiate votes in the Bundestag on resolutions that will be supported by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party – considered by the German political establishment as “extreme Right” and as a “threat” to Germany’s democratic order.
Merz decided to put to the vote a five-point motion on stopping mass illegal immigration to Germany by renewing control over Germany’s borders with all neighboring countries, blocking the entry to Germany of all those who don’t possess valid documents including asylum seekers, and arresting and deporting illegal and criminal immigrants who lost their bid or right to stay in Germany.
This resolution, which has no binding validity, was adopted with an unprecedented majority combining for the time since 2017 – the year the AfD was elected for the first time to the Bundestag. The three right-wing parties in the Bundestag, the Conservative Union (Christian-Democrats and Bavarian Christian-Socials), the AfD, and the liberal FDP voted together.
Such political cooperation was unimaginable until now, as the Conservative Union and Merz himself still exclude any future coalition with the AfD on federal and local levels.
THE APPEARANCE of the AfD in German politics in 2013 made it impossible to form a right-wing government in Germany. The Conservative Union followed the famous words of the former prime minister of Bavaria and mythological leader of the Christian Social Union, Franz Josef Strauss, who was a very close friend of Israel, according to whom “there must be no democratically legitimate party right of the CDU-CSU.”
The CSU is traditionally considered more conservative than the “sister party,” the CDU. Strauss expressed this view in the summer of 1987, two years before the fall of the Berlin Wall and three years before the reunification of Germany.
At that time, a new extreme-right party, Die Republikaner (The Republicans), was gaining popularity and was hoping, as other extreme-right parties before it, to cross the 5% vote threshold that would allow it to be elected to the Bundestag.
Breaking through the barriers
The political barrier to the Right set by Strauss, which was meant to hold back any breakthrough of electoral nationalistic forces on the national level, was broken by the AfD. The AfD was formed 12 years ago by liberal, conservative, and national forces as a protest against the general policies of the then-conservative chancellor, Angela Merkel.
The AfD was formed 12 years ago by liberal, conservative, and national forces as a protest against the general policies of the then-conservative Chancellor, Angela Merkel. The founders of the AfD explained that Merkel had transformed the Conservative Union into a center-left party, and Germany desperately needed a renewal of the conservative and national spirit, which would detach it from its obligations to the EU and dependence on the USA.
The founders of the AfD explained that Merkel had transformed the Conservative Union into a center-left party, and Germany desperately needed a renewal of the conservative and national spirit, which would detach it from its obligations to the EU and dependence on the USA. The AfD was immediately branded by its political rivals, from the Left and Right, as an extreme-right party and haven of neo-Nazis.
In the general election of 2013, the AfD almost crossed the 5% threshold, and by attracting votes from the conservatives and weakening the liberals, it was impossible for Merkel, despite her biggest electoral victory ever, to form a right-wing coalition. Merkel was forced to join forces with the Social Democrats, thus strengthening the claim of the AfD that Merkel was a “lefty.”
The “refugee crisis” of 2015 and Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders to mass immigration that completely transformed Germany’s social fabric enabled the AfD to make a historic electoral breakthrough in the general election of 2017 and become the third-largest party in the Bundestag after receiving 12.6% of the votes.
DESPITE HAVING a right-wing majority composed of the conservatives, the AfD, and the liberals, Merkel categorically refused any cooperation with the AfD and had no other option but to form another government with the Social Democrats.
In the last general election, in 2021, after Merkel’s departure from politics, the conservatives lost for the first time in 16 years. A center-left government was formed, and the AfD became the fifth-largest group in the Bundestag, with 10.5% of the votes.
All those who predicted that the AfD would be a short-lived and passing phenomenon had to admit the far-right party has become an important and relatively stable political element, especially in former East Germany. The most recent voting polls ahead of February’s election suggest that the AfD will get 20-23% of the votes and will become the second-largest party in the Bundestag.
According to the polls, the conservatives and the AfD could have a comfortable majority to govern after the election. But Friedrich Merz fiercely held to the Brandmauer (Firewall) approach, banning any cooperation with the AfD. If he holds his promise, he will have to follow Merkel’s steps and form a government either with the Social Democrats or even for the first time with the Greens.
However, Merz knows that if he wants a clear-cut victory in the upcoming election, he has to get rid of any similarity to Merkel and become an anti-Merkel figure. Only by doing so can he hope to seduce the voters of the AfD.
Therefore, he took the risk of joining forces with the AfD and breaking a political taboo in initiating his anti-immigration resolution at the Bundestag, which was rightly named by the German press the “hot air resolution” since it has no legal effect or validity.
With this resolution, Merz made himself attackable: The left parties accused him of “selling his soul” to the AfD. Left activists held loud demonstrations in front of the CDU headquarters in Berlin and attacked or occupied other branches of the party, calling its leader “Friedrich von Hindenburg” after Paul von Hindenburg, the German president who played a key role in the Nazi seizure of power by nominating Adolf Hitler as Chancellor in 1933.
Even Angela Merkel, who prefers avoiding any public involvement in daily politics, published a statement harshly criticizing Merz’s maneuver. The AfD, in a bear hug, congratulated Merz for finally adopting its proposed policies on immigration. Alice Weidel, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor, still dreams that she will be able to mobilize the voters and win the election.
The 'Influx Limitation Law'
HOWEVER, MERZ insisted on pushing forward his tougher line on immigration. On Friday, he brought to vote in the Bundestag an “Influx Limitation Law” proposal aimed at tightening existing migration laws in Germany. This time, Merz suffered a severe blow, as the legislation proposal was rejected due to defections from his own party, with 338 deputies voting for it and 349 rejecting it.
Twelve voters from those who voted against the law proposal were needed for victory, this time not symbolic but effective. Twelve deputies of the Conservative Union did not cast the vote as a protest against Merz’s leaning again on the AfD to assure a majority. Among the liberals, 23 deputies avoided supporting the proposed law.
Merz accused the left parties, the Social Democrats and the Greens, of rejecting any compromise on such an important issue. The Left took pride in “closing the doors to hell,” opened by Merz’s cooperation with the AfD. The AfD, hoping to take advantage of Merz’s defeat, declared that the result of the vote was “the dismantling of Merz as a chancellor candidate.”
But Merz, a real conservative, knows that whatever government he might lead after the election will have to change the direction of Germany and the EU. The resolution he passed with the support of the AfD and the rejected law proposal show the way he wants to go.
Today, he has enough partners all over Europe, from Sweden to Italy and from the Netherlands to Poland, to change old policies and choose another path to stop mass immigration and send as many “refugees” as possible back home.
Merz knows that Europe has no other alternative but to bury Merkel’s legacy and choose Trump’s immigration method. That’s the only possible way to try and save Europe, even if it might already be too late.