The chemical weapons attack is reminiscent of that line in Godfather III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Trump is impulsive. He also does not want to be seen as backing down after having accused his predecessor Barack Obama of weakness. This will paint him into a corner and force him to do something. One of the first major foreign policy decisions of the Trump administration was the April 2017 Shayrat missile strike on Syria after the Khan Shaykhun chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime. The new attack comes almost a year later, as if Assad was trying to test the US after rumors of American withdrawal.Syrian rebels have been spreading rumors of a US-backed attack on Syria for more than a month, claiming the US was working more closely with rebel groups in the south. However these rumored attacks never took place. It is unclear now if the inertia will finally end, and if it does, what will come next? Destroying a few Assad warplanes will have no effect. The larger question is: “What about the Russians in Syria and their air defenses?”Trump didn’t shy away from accusing Putin and Russia directly of backing Assad. With the US and Moscow already in the midst of a diplomatic crisis that led to 60 Russian diplomats being expelled in March, this will bring relations to an even greater low and could risk conflict. It should be recalled that in February a group of pro-regime forces, allegedly including Russian contractors in Syria, tried to attack US-backed forces near Deir al-Zor. The US responded, killing hundreds in a major battle, including several Russian contractors.Israel has opposed the US withdrawal from Syria at the highest levels, according to recent reports. Now the prospect of any US withdrawal will be more distant and the US may be encouraged to do more, including confronting Iran’s role in Damascus. Tensions are already high in Syria. Now they will be higher.
Trump’s Syria exit plan hits major snag
Analysis: Tensions are already high in Syria. Now they will be higher.
