Who could have known then that the election would end up as exciting as it has become?
By GIL HOFFMANTHE BALLOT slips from the last elections are seen this week at the Israel Central Election Committee Logistics Center in Shoham. (photo credit: AMMAR AWAD / REUTERS)
The night that the election was initiated, on December 24, an Al Jazeera anchor asked whether there was any chance that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose the election.When she received a reply that Israel is a democracy – unlike most of the countries that watch Al Jazeera – and therefore anything can happen, she laughed a little too loud and too long.But who could have known then that the election would end up as exciting as it has become?Since that day in December, the election has had four critical turning points:• December 27 – Former IDF chief Benny Gantz entered the race,• January 29 – Gantz delivered his maiden political address,• February 21 – his Blue and White Party was formed with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, and• February 28 – Netanyahu’s indictment pending a hearing was issued.At each of those points, the polls changed – although out of the four, the indictment surprisingly ended up having the least political impact. The Likud has remained relatively consistent through each turning point, while its opponents have rearranged themselves strategically.This is an election that could be decided not only at the top of the mandates list – with the usual “To Bibi or not to Bibi” vote that Israelis have become accustomed to – but also at the bottom of the list, by which parties cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, and which parties are left out beneath it.
When the voting is over, President Reuven Rivlin will look at which party received the most votes, which bloc is the largest and which party leader received the most recommendations from the factions, and decide who can form the most stable government.But between now and then, the election could turn upside down and either Center-Left or Center-Right side up – dozens of times.To ease that vertigo, as in past elections, The Jerusalem Post presents a political guide to the perplexed, with the parties, polls and personalities, as well as the crucial question of preferences for the coalition that will be built after April 9.Blue and WhitePoll Position seats: 35-37Current Knesset seats: 11 from Yesh AtidTop candidates: 1. Benny Gantz, 2. Yair Lapid, 3. Moshe Ya’alon, 4. Gabi Ashkenazi, 5. Avi Nissenkorn, 6. Meir Cohen, 7. Miki Haimovich, 8. Ofer Shelah, 9. Yoaz Hendel, 10. Orna BarbivaiAnglo candidates: 12. Chili Tropper, 42. Moshe Tur-Paz, 43. Ruth Wasserman Lande, 45. Alon Tal, 6. Michal Cotler-WunshCoalition preference: A national unity government led by Gantz as prime minister, with the post-Netanyahu Likud as its top coalition partner. Would not join Netanyahu-led government.LikudPoll Position seats: 29-31Current Knesset seats: 30Top candidates: 1. Benjamin Netanyahu, 2. Yuli Edelstein, 3. Israel Katz, 4. Gilad Erdan, 5. Gideon Sa’ar, 6. Miri Regev, 7. Yariv Levin, 8. Yoav Gallant, 9. Nir Barkat, 10. Gila Gamliel.Anglo candidates: 28. Sharren Haskel, 42. Yehudah GlickCoalition preference: A right-wing government led by Netanyahu with 61 MKs from the Center-Right bloc, plus another party or two for insurance.LaborPoll Position seats: 7-9Current Knesset seats: 19Top candidates: 1. Avi Gabbay, 2. Tal Rousso, 3. Itzik Shmuli, 4. Stav Shaffir, 5. Shelly YacimovichAnglo candidates: 12. Yair “Yaya” FinkCoalition preference: A government led by Gantz. Won’t join Netanyahu-led government or coalition with Yisrael Beytenu or Union of Right-Wing Parties (URP).Hadash-Ta’alPoll Position seats: 7-9Current Knesset seats: 6Top candidates: 1. Ayman Odeh, 2. Ahmad Tibi, 3. Aida Touma-Sliman, 4. Osama Sa’adi, 5. Ofer KassifAnglo candidates: NoneCoalition preference: NoneUnited Torah JudaismPoll Position seats: 7Current Knesset seats: 6Top candidates: 1. Ya’acov Litzman, 2. Moshe Gafni, 3. Meir Porush, 4. Uri Maklev, 5. Yaakov TesslerAnglo candidates: 8. Yitzhak PindrusCoalition preference: Netanyahu-led coalition that does not include Blue and White.Union of Right-Wing Parties (URP)Poll Position seats: 5-8Current Knesset seats: 5Top candidates: 1. Rafi Peretz, 2. Bezalel Smotrich, 3. Moti Yogev, 4. Ophir Sofer, 5. Michael Ben-AriAnglo candidates: NoneCoalition preference: Right-wing government led by Netanyahu. Would not join government led by Gantz.New RightPoll Position seats: 5-7Current Knesset seats: 3Top candidates: 1. Naftali Bennett, 2. Ayelet Shaked, 3. Alona Barkat, 4. Matan Kahana, 5. Shuli Moalem-RefaeliAnglo candidates: 1. Bennett, 6. Caroline Glick, 23. Jeremy SaltanCoalition preference: Right-wing government led by Netanyahu, with New Right as its largest coalition partner. Would not join government led by Gantz.MeretzPoll Position seats: 4-6Current Knesset seats: 5Top candidates: 1. Tamar Zandberg, 2. Ilan Gilon, 3. Michal Rozin, 4. Esawi Frej, 5. Ali SalalhaCoalition preference: Center-Left government led by Gantz, without the Union of Right-Wing Parties or the New Right. Would not join government formed by Netanyahu.ShasPoll Position seats: 4-6Current Knesset seats: 7Top candidates: 1. Arye Deri, 2. Yitzhak Cohen, 3. Meshulam Nahari, 4. Ya’acov Margi, 5. Yoav Ben-TzurAnglo candidates: NoneCoalition preference: Netanyahu-led coalition that does not include Blue and White.KulanuPoll Position seats: 4-6Current Knesset seats: 10Top candidates: 1. Moshe Kahlon, 2. Eli Cohen, 3. Yifat Shasha-Biton, 4. Roy Folkman, 5. Tali PloskovAnglo candidates: NoneCoalition preference: Prefers Netanyahu-led government but does not rule out joining coalition led by Gantz. Would join Netanyahu-led government, but would leave if he is indicted after his hearing.Yisrael BeytenuPoll Position seats: 0-4Current Knesset seats: 5Top candidates: 1. Avigdor Liberman, 2. Oded Forer, 3. Evgeny Sova, 4. Eli Avidar, 5. Yulia MalinovskyAnglo candidates: NoneCoalition preference: Right-wing government led by Netanyahu. Would not join government led by Gantz.Balad-United Arab ListPoll Position seats: 0-4Current Knesset seats: 6Top candidates: 1. Mansour Abbas, 2. Mtanes Shehadeh, 3. Abdel Hakim Haj Yahya, 4. Hibi Yazbek, 5. Taleb Abu ArarAnglo candidates: NoneCoalition preference: NoneGesherPoll Position seats: 0-4Current Knesset seats: 1Top candidates: 1. Orly Levy-Abecassis, 2. Dedi Perlmutter, 3. Yifat Bitton, 4. Hagai Reznik, 5. Gilad SemamaAnglo candidates: 9. Haggai LavieCoalition preference: Politically flexible. Would join Netanyahu-led government, but would leave if he is indicted after his hearing.ZehutPoll Position seats: 0-4Current Knesset seats: 0Top candidates: 1. Moshe Feiglin, 2. Haim Amsalem, 3. Gilad Alper, 4. Ronit Dror, 5. Libby MoladAnglo candidates: 10. Ben-Zion Spitz, 12. Shmuel Sackett, 13. Shlomo Gordon, 19. Zvi Sand, 20. David Sidman, 31. Rafi FarberCoalition preference: Politically flexibleParties that don’t cross threshold in any pollPoll Position seats: 0Current Knesset seats: 0 (Tzomet leader Oren Hazan does not count. He is still a Likud MK)Top candidates: NoneAnglo candidates: 1. Dennis Avi Lipkin in the Bible Bloc Party, 9. Rumi Zonder-Kislev in MagenCoalition preference: Any
