A Panels Research poll taken for The Jerusalem Post and Ma’ariv found that Likud would clinch 30 seats if the election had been held this week, Yesh Atid 18, Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope 14 and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina 12.
The Joint List would secure 10 seats while Shas and United Torah Judaism would each gain 8 mandates. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu would win 7 seats, Meretz 5, Blue and White 4 and the Labor Party – under the new leadership of Merav Michaeli – would win 4 seats.
The lists need to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee by Thursday.
Ron Huldai’s Israelis Party as well as Betzalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party would not cross the threshold, and Moshe Ya’alon’s Telem Party was far below the threshold with only 0.4% of the vote.
Based on the poll, Benjamin Netanyahu would not be able to form a coalition. Likud, Shas, UTJ and Yamina would only amount to 58 seats, shy of the 61 needed for a majority coalition.
On the other hand, Lapid would be able to form a government together with Sa’ar, Bennett, Liberman, Meretz, Labor and Blue and White, reaching 64 seats.
The poll of 536 respondents representing a statistical sample of the Israeli population had a margin of error of 4.4%.