US President Joe Biden laid out a three-part ceasefire proposal on Friday. The proposal appears to leave Hamas in power in Gaza and could lead to Hamas benefiting via reconstruction. However, Israel has also defined its goals in Gaza in such a flexible way, without a clear strategy, that Hamas may be left in power under Israel’s current plan.
“At this point, Hamas no longer is capable of carrying out another October 7, just one of Israel’s main objectives in this war, and quite frankly a righteous one,” Biden said at the White House, according to CNN. The plan would lead to a “full and complete ceasefire,” and release of hostages.
Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza and Hamas would release a “number” of hostages. Israel would release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. This same deal has been on the table for months and Hamas has been stringing Israel along, hoping pressure from other countries, such as Qatar and Egypt, could lead to Hamas getting better terms.
The current proposal by the US mentioned an “exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers…and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, the temporary ceasefire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposals, ‘the cessation of hostilities permanently.’” Then there would be a “major reconstruction plan for Gaza.”
French President Emmanuel Macron also called for the Gaza war to end. “We support the US proposal for a durable peace. Just as we are working with our partners in the region on peace and security for all. The release of the hostages, a permanent ceasefire to work towards peace and progress on the two-state solution.”
Israel’s conditions are slightly different, according to the Prime Minister whose office put out a statement on X. “Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.” Israel’s conditions are flexible in this regard because the definition of “capabilities” and “threat” are quite broad.
The overall trend of the war now appears to leave Hamas in power. Israeli officials have talked about fighting for another seven months, which is less than the “years” that some predicted months ago. In addition, Israel is also apparently in the process of ditching the “there won’t be Hamas” talking points, and references to total defeat or victory or elimination of Hamas.
The current ceasefire plan is a plan to keep Hamas in power. The result will be that Hamas will return to running most of Gaza in the coming years and the reconstruction effort will likely empower Hamas as it has in the past. Unless Hamas is replaced by a different government in Gaza, Hamas will partner with the donors for reconstruction and it will have a hand in each building that is rebuilt.
In the past it has built tunnel shafts under buildings, including tunnels under schools and community centers. It will also be able to place weapons in the reconstructed areas. In the past the donors and humanitarian NGOs have shown that they are not willing to challenge Hamas or even report its presence. It built a terror state in Gaza and stockpiled more weapons per capita than most countries in the world. Hamas minders will seek to exploit reconstruction.
If Hamas is permitted to remain it will declare victory. It’s leaders have not been charged with the crimes of October 7, meaning that Hamas leaders in Doha will likely seek to take over the West Bank in coming years. Hamas is backed by Ankara, Doha and Tehran and also Moscow.
Israel even more alone
The result of this will mean that Israel emerges from this war more isolated than in the past. Hezbollah and Iranian proxies have also benefited from this war and are not deterred. This round could end with Hamas more powerful than in the past, even though it has lost tunnels and personnel. The question for Israel will be what hundreds of soldiers were sacrificed for, if Hamas remains in power in Gaza.
It's plausible that if Israel’s enemies sense they have won there will be more provocations in the future. Hezbollah and Hamas have learned that rocket fire can now get Israel to evacuate the borders of Israel. Israel spent a lot of political capital on fighting this slow war.
It also waged it slowly without a desire for a quick decisive victory. Hamas units in central Gaza, for instance, are not badly damaged. The IDF didn’t defeat Hamas in Nuseirat, Deir al-Balah, Maghazi and Bureij. The Palestinian Authority has been weakened by the war as well, leading to the northern West Bank becoming inflamed. Weapons are also flowing to terror groups in the northern West Bank.
When you go into a war you need to ask who will benefit from a long war and a war without a goal or without clear victory. The terrorists clearly benefit. Israel doesn’t appear to benefit. Now Israel may be trapped into a ceasefire where very few goals are met in Gaza.
A weak Hamas can recover. Iran learned a lot in this war about Israel’s vulnerabilities. What did Israel accomplish? It didn’t even defeat a terror group that had one 20-30,000 fighters. When powerful countries fight weaker enemies the powerful country has more to lose via missteps. This may have been a march of folly.