Yossi Amrusi, a former Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) official, explained on Sunday the possible outcomes of the elimination of Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades' chief Mohammad Deif.
If the assassination was indeed carried out, "it is a very significant assassination, especially as a symbol. It has an effect on what's going on," stated the former Shin Bet official.
Amrusi believed that only heightened military activities and pressure on Hamas would bring back the hostages. "Military pressure, like the occupation of Rafah, like control over the Philadelphi Corridor, like the elimination of senior officials, like the elimination of Deif, is a tool both for collapsing Hamas militarily and administratively and also for advancing the deal. If pressure falls on Hamas, and this military pressure includes the elimination of senior officials, then it is very significant for advancing the hostage deal," Amrusi explained.
"If you are sitting now in Yahya Sinwar's position and he knows that a large part of his generals have been eliminated, who has he even left in his general headquarters? There are not many people left. He knows that this may also come down to him. We have reached Marwan Issa; we will reach him, too. Maybe he should reach this deal before the sword is not only placed on his neck but already cut off."
However, Amrusi contends, "On the other hand, the one who makes the decisions is Yahya Sinwar, not necessarily Mohammad Deif."
Amrusi believes that Sinwar knows that circumstances have changed. "Because of our control over the territory. Since the disengagement, we have not had physical control over the territory. The presence in the territory greatly promotes intelligence; many thousands of Gazans have been arrested, some of them in recent operations. They come to the interrogation facilities, and the interrogation facilities always bring quality intelligence." Amrusi speculates that "information from the investigations eventually led to the same golden information we heard about."
The essence of Amrusi's assessment is that eliminating Deif and the military operations in the field will also benefit the hostages. "I believe this elimination plus continued military pressure promotes the deal more than continued offensives."
The assassination of Mohammad Deif, if it is to be confirmed, may change the balance of power in the region and create additional pressure on the Hamas leadership to consider the next steps.
Deif's background, and further significance behind his possible elimination
"Mohammad Deif's family and he himself are originally from the Kochav Michael area; in 1948, they arrived in the Gaza Strip. He belongs to a family of refugees who settled in Khan Yunis, where he grew up," said Amrusi.
He added that "Deif, who joined Hamas in the late 1980s, was arrested by Israel in 1990 and released." Since then, he has become a central Hamas figure, and Amrusi noted that "he is indeed the most senior figure that Israel would have eliminated in this war, and perhaps in general."
According to Amrusi, Deif, along with the Hamas chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, are responsible for the death of many. "They have a lot of blood on their hands," he stated. Deif worked in cooperation with the top murderers and survived seven assassination attempts, which makes him a highly symbolic figure.
Amrusi described the frustration in the security establishment over the years, which has accompanied the unsuccessful assassination attempts to this day, he noted. "Those who commanded some of the operations are very frustrated because at some point you finally reach him, find him, hit where he is, and in the end, he remains alive..."
According to him, the many assassination attempts, as well as Deif's activities as a whole, "turned him into a symbol, a character that inspires. People name their children after him."
Despite this, Amrusi emphasized that Deif takes strict precautions. "Unlike Sinwar, he has stayed away like fire for the past twenty-five years from any telephone or electronic devices. He is afraid that they will be able to reach him. He does not speak to the media at all; he does not conduct interviews. The team that surrounds him is very small; he changes places all the time, and it is difficult to locate him."
According to Amrusi, Deif also changed Hamas. "In the last twenty-five years, he turned Hamas into a kind of paramilitary. He built the companies, battalions, brigades, and military; he coordinated and developed the whole concept of tunnels. You can say that he is the person responsible for building Hamas's power and also for exercising it. He is a messiah and an extreme jihadist.
Amrusi shed light on how these assassination operations are carried out. "Intelligence is collected all day and night, weeks, months and years. You collect the intelligence piece by piece, news by news, and slowly build an intelligence picture. On Deif, they gathered and consolidated intelligence to try to locate him. When there is some indication that the man is in a certain place, the whole system goes from zero to a hundred in one second. The whole system gathers in the Shin Bet operations room and starts conducting the operation."