Hezbollah continues to attack northern Israel daily. It also continues to suffer losses. On July 16, Iran’s IRNA news agency said that Hezbollah had suffered yet another casualty. This time it was a 60-year-old Hezbollah member from Bint Jbeil.
He is one of almost 300 members killed in nine months. While the Lebanese-based terrorist group has suffered heavier losses than Israel, it believes it is winning this round of conflict because Israelis are still evacuated from their homes in the North.
Hezbollah brags every two or three days about its accomplishments in attacks on the North. It said this week it targeted more IDF sites. However, it seems overall that Hezbollah is going through the motions, with daily attacks designed to keep the pressure on Israel while the Gaza war continues.
It has said it will stop the attacks when the Gaza war ends; Israel is more circumspect. Israeli officials have said that Israel could continue operations against Hezbollah.
On July 16, the IDF said, “Earlier today [Tuesday], two Hezbollah terrorists were identified fleeing the area from which projectiles were launched toward Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel yesterday [Monday]. Following the identification, the IAF struck the terrorists in the area of Mansouri in southern Lebanon.”
In northern Israel, the IDF is ready for any eventuality. It has been ready for many months, cycling units through training. This has meant training reservists and regular troops. The training involves numerous scenarios, usually training battalions or brigades. They also train to work together, with other components of their division or with the Air Force, local police and security teams, emergency services, and the navy.
It’s all designed to be ready for a larger war in the North. Israel was always ready for the big war in the North against Hezbollah. Now, that could also be against Iranian-backed militias in Syria and even Iraqi militias who want to travel to Syria or Lebanon to support Iranian-backed groups.
Waiting for Godot
ajor front that was expected. It is now Gaza’s “tail” that is wagging the dog in this sense. This is not what the IDF originally had in mind nine months ago. But every plan is only good up until contact with the enemy. Now we have seen the enemy in Gaza and we are waiting in the North – that is the sense.
Israel is on the defensive in the North. This means that Hezbollah and Iran have the initiative: They choose when and where to attack. Israel responds with precision proportionate strikes, usually on terrorist infrastructure. But there may be diminishing returns here. The sense I’ve felt over the last few months is that the IDF is ready and is like a horse chomping at the bit; it is waiting for what comes next but it also has been trained and trained and trained. It’s like a boxer who is ready for the arena but never gets to get in the ring.
Everything comes down to the political level and the decisions that may come. Israel has learned a lot in nine months of clashes with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has also learned a lot. It takes losses but it seems to keep coming. Israel can also learn from other modern conflicts, such as the Ukraine war. Hezbollah is backed by Iran, which supplies it as well as Russia with drones and drone technology.
This means that one could look at the conflicts and see how Iranian-backed groups or partners use a mix of drones and missiles to terrorize civilians. This is what Russia and Hezbollah are doing. It is what Iran did on April 13 when it launched around 350 projectiles at Israel, and Iran’s proxies launched another 150 projectiles, such as missiles and drones, targeting the Jewish state.
Cheap weapons are changing the battlefield. Most of these are cheap drones. However, Hezbollah also uses precision-guided munitions, ATGMs, and rockets to attack Israel. It’s not clear if Hezbollah is rebuilding its infrastructure that was damaged in a dozen villages near the border. Most civilians have fled from villages in southern Lebanon. The damage to Hezbollah adds up. But there is always more to be struck.
The IDF wants to help Israel’s civilians to return to the North. There are still 50,000 evacuees from northern Israel. Four soldiers were recently wounded due to shrapnel from an interception that landed in Kiryat Shmona. Two Israeli civilians were killed in the Golan due to rocket fire. A soldier was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack on Kibbutz Kabri. This all shows the danger the terrorist group poses to the North.
Hezbollah and the IDF are both bringing new capabilities to the front. Pro-Iran media recently said that Hezbollah was using the Shahed 101 drone, which Al-Mayadeen media described as a better drone than the one Hezbollah has been using until now. The anti-tank guided missile threat is also a major problem in the North.
Israel and Hezbollah are learning – the big question will be whose learning curve is better.