The pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media usually boasts about Hezbollah’s attacks daily on its front page. Following the Hezbollah rocket attack and the massacre of children at Majdal Shams, the Hezbollah media machine has toned down its boasting. While Hezbollah has denied the Saturday attack, which murdered 12 children, it has continued to carry out small attacks on northern Israel.
Hezbollah is in a difficult situation; it wants to show it is not deterred and that it is ready for escalation from Israel but is also worried about what might come next.
Evidence for Hezbollah’s concern can be found in the Iranian state media, IRNA. This is another website that usually cheers Hezbollah’s claimed attacks. What are the headlines at IRNA on July 29? One of them describes how an Israeli expert has expressed concern about Hezbollah’s advanced weapons capabilities. This messaging is designed to convey that Israel is worried.
The intention is to instill a sense of security in the Iranian axis of proxy groups. Leaks to Al-Jarida media in Kuwait recently claimed Hezbollah has “electromagnetic” weapons that could harm Israel’s energy grid. This appears to be Hezbollah or Iranian propaganda. However, it could also reference Hezbollah’s doomsday tactic of seeking to go after Israeli energy and water infrastructure in case of escalation. This is one of the tactics for mutually assured destruction.
Meanwhile, the Iranian media also notes that the US is urging Hezbollah to respond in a “limited” way to any Israeli response to Majdal Shams. The strategy aims to shift the responsibility for response to the Lebanese government, allowing Hezbollah to pretend that it is not escalating as a result of being “held back” by Beirut.
However, everyone knows that Beirut does not restrain Hezbollah. Therefore, any report that pretends that the Lebanese government has any say in what Hezbollah does is designed to make it appear that the terrorist group is listening to the US. This is all about posturing and positioning Hezbollah for the day after any kind of Israeli retaliation for Majdal Shams.
Finally, IRNA is reporting that Turkey has threatened Israel with military action. The Iranian Axis would like to drag Ankara into a wider war. Both Iran and Turkey back Hamas. Ankara does not back Hezbollah. However, Turkey doesn’t want Lebanon ruined in a major war. Therefore, it is interesting to see how Iran hopes Ankara might also play a role in reducing tensions in the region.
Turkey's threats to Israel
Turkey’s president is adept at using threats to defuse tensions, implying that Ankara may resort to military action against Israel. This is likely boasting, but it’s worth taking some of it seriously, if only because Iran takes it seriously.
Hezbollah is currently in a predicament. In the wake of the murderous attack on Majdal Shams, the group denied its role. Then it slowly eased itself back into attacks. It struck the Israeli community of Shtula on the Lebanese border on Sunday. Then, on Monday, sirens sounded in the areas of Admit and Ya’ara in northern Israel.
The “IDF Aerial Defense System successfully intercepted a UAV that crossed from Lebanon toward the area of the Western Galilee,” the IDF said. In the afternoon, more sirens sounded in Kiryat Shmona and communities nearby. By doing this, Hezbollah is making it clear that it will continue its attacks.
Hezbollah wants to return to its daily tit-for-tat clashes with Israel. This is what it calls the “equation.” It has launched some 6,000 rockets, drones, and missiles at Israel since October 8, when it began its attacks in support of the Hamas war on Israel. Essentially, Hezbollah fires approximately 20 projectiles, including rockets, anti-tank missiles, and drones at Israel every day. In recent months, Hezbollah has been using more drones, Falaq-1 rockets, and other types of weapons.
Hezbollah’s predicament now is that it doesn’t want escalation. It doesn’t want a major war, but it wants to maintain the ability to continue its smaller attacks. It wants to maintain the “right” to attack most of northern Israel, up to a range of around 10 miles.
This is the “right” Hezbollah carved out since October 8, which the international community now accepts. Any attempt by Israel to strike deep into Lebanon or eliminate more than one Hezbollah member a day in precision strikes is seen as “escalation.” This is what Hezbollah wants. Anything more, and Hezbollah will drag Lebanon into a major war. So far, Hezbollah has mobilized the Lebanese government as a shield, allowing the terror group to continue its small attacks.