The chances of an all-out confrontation with Hezbollah soon are below 50%, Middle East expert, professor Amatzia Baram told Maariv on Sunday.
He added that both sides exercise significant restraint to avoid a full-scale war. Baram explained that the relationship between Israel and Hezbollah is delicate, with both parties escalating military operations cautiously and incrementally.
Despite frequent tensions that might suggest an imminent conflict, Baram emphasized that neither side genuinely seeks war.
“Hezbollah constantly expands its activities slightly, and we react similarly. Both sides are escalating, but also avoiding reaching a full confrontation.”
Baram also addressed Iran’s influence on Hezbollah and noted that Tehran understands that the time for an all-out war has not arrived.
“My assessment is that even Iran does not want the conflict to develop into an all-out war,” Baram explained.
He added that for [Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei, Israel is “disintegrating from within,” “with demonstrations, division and hostilities within the country.”
However, he also pointed out that Israel’s military capabilities and air force strength serve as a clear signal to Hezbollah that now is not the time to initiate a military operation. Hezbollah also understands the situation, Baram affirmed.
“[Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah understands very well what is happening here. He has Hebrew-speaking operatives who provide him with full information about what is happening. Both he and Iran see that relations with the US are getting worse, but not in a way sufficient to justify an all-out confrontation. Therefore, even though we are getting closer to a conflict, the chance of an all-out war in the coming months is less than 50%.”
“The government is not interested in entering into a war on two fronts, and the Americans are pressuring us not to escalate the situation into an all-out war,” he said.
“This also stems from the internal political considerations of the US – elections are approaching, and the war in the Middle East may have negative consequences for Kamala Harris’s chances of being elected.”
Iran's understanding
On the other hand, Iran also has an understanding of the devastating consequences an all-out war may have.
“Khamenei warns Nasrallah not to enter into a full conflict because it is clear that if this happens, Lebanon will be completely destroyed – the economic and industrial infrastructure will be severely damaged,” Baram affirmed.
This comes as the IDF has expanded its operational freedom on the northern front, partly due to intense public pressure from residents of the North. “The Chief of Staff gives the local commanders more freedom of action, including a license to kill Hezbollah operatives,” said Baram.
“The pressure on the government and the army on behalf of the residents of the area, who are under fire and have not been evacuated, is enormous. Therefore, the commanders are given a license to act more aggressively, but within the limits of the border.”
According to Baram, Hezbollah faces significant limitations with regard to its intelligence capabilities and its military precision, leading to indiscriminate firing at civilian communities.
“Hezbollah does not have the level of intelligence and precision that Israel has. Therefore, it acts against both military and civilian targets. He cited the example of the rocket barrage on Katzrin as evidence of Hezbollah’s inability to hit military targets accurately.
Baram emphasized the need for a clear and determined Israeli response if Hezbollah continues to expand the scope of its attacks on settlements that have not been evacuated.
“If they continue to attack communities that have not been evacuated, we must respond more forcefully” and send a diplomatic warning, Baram noted.
If Israel does not do so, Hezbollah may expand its range of fire and “fire regularly” at places as far south as “Tiberias,” Baram stated.