Deeply entrenched in a war for almost a year, Israel has been facing increasing criticism and pressure. Several countries have announced weapons embargoes on the Jewish state, with varying degrees and measures being applied. These are in an attempt to cajole Israel into stopping its war on Hamas in Gaza and preventing it from further escalating other already active fronts in the West Bank, Lebanon, and perhaps even Iran.
Just this week, German media reported a quiet arms embargo against Israel was being implemented as numbers showed German exports to Israel had plummeted in 2024. According to those reports, Israel wanted to purchase thousands of tank shells from Berlin in the last year but has yet to receive a response.
On Wednesday, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly is expected to pass a resolution demanding Israel end its occupation of the West Bank and its presence in Gaza. One of the clauses of the resolution calls on countries to halt arms exports to Israel if those weapons are suspected of being used in those territories. The list of weapons in the resolution was reportedly altered and slimmed down so as not to include dual-usage materials that can be used for civilian purposes. The non-binding resolution is expected to pass by a large majority but will not have a concrete impact on Israel.
Earlier this month, the United Kingdom announced the suspension of some of its weapons sales to Israel. The move followed similar sanctions from France, Canada, The Netherlands, and Belgium, which imposed restrictions on arms sales to Israel much earlier.
“What we are seeing is an increased spillover of politics into commerce and economy,” Dani Catarivas, President of the Israeli Federation of bi-national Chambers of Commerce, told The Media Line. “The extent of the measures depends on the degree of supervision the different states have on their defense industries, some of them national and some of them private.”
Most concerning to Israel so far is the slowing down of certain arms deliveries from the US, which has slowed down the shipment of certain weapons to Israel.
“There is no doubt this issue raises a warning flag,” Catarivas said. “While one must not diminish the measures taken by the countries, Israel’s main dependence and main needs are supplied by the US, and so long as these are still being supplied, Israel is far from being in danger by these embargoes.”
Speaking at a National Association of Black Journalists event on Tuesday, US Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party candidate for Presidency said she supported the decision by President Joe Biden earlier this year to delay the supply of 2000-pound bombs to Israel.
“There is some leverage that we have had and used,” she said.
The war began on October 7th of last year, with a surprise attack carried out by the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist organization in which 1200 Israelis were murdered in the single-day rampage, thousands of others were wounded, and approximately 250 people were kidnapped. In response, Israel launched a massive military operation in the Gaza Strip.
According to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, more than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of the war, with no tally of how many are terrorists and how many civilians. Almost 95,000 Palestinians have been injured. The UN estimates almost 2 million residents of the territory have been displaced.
While the war began with widespread support for Israel, the climbing death toll in Gaza and the images of massive destruction drew fire toward the military operation. With Israel on the cusp of a similar operation in Lebanon against the Hezbollah terrorist organization, there is concern in the international community that the carnage will be greater. Israel is additionally concerned about its ability to sustain such an extent of military activity on several fronts, an activity that needs the guarantee of a steady supply of weapons and systems.
According to Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, Israel’s concern is limited. The embargos' damage to it is “minimal and only to complementary and uncritical components.”
“The American slowdown of precision-guided bombs will only backfire on the US,” Kalisky told The Media Line. “So instead of hitting a military target, it could be a hospital.”
Israel’s Merkava tank, a product of a British embargo that halted the use of the UK-made Chieftain tank in the 1970s, is not manufactured solely in Israel.
“Its engine, weapons barrels, and other components are currently produced outside of Israel, so Israel cannot say it can do absolutely everything on its own,” said Kalisky. “But no country, including the US, can do everything on its own. But Israel does have the ability and the knowledge to get along.”
Israel was surprised by Hamas’ attack. It not only shattered a widely believed concept that the terrorist organization was deterred, but it also brought to the collapse of an even more steadfast belief that big wars fought with boots on the ground, heavy artillery, and tanks were a thing of the past. In recent decades, the Israeli defense establishment, with its military at the helm, shifted to a paradigm of a smaller, more hi-tech force, which relied on its air force and cyber abilities and less on its ground troops, tanks, and artillery.
“Perhaps Israel should have thought differently,” said Kalisky. “There was a feeling, not only in Israel, that the world was moving to low-intensity conflict. Israel was maybe looking to lower costs. The latest war could bring Israel to the realization that it has to have much more local stock.”
With little official information publicly available about where Israel gets its weapons from and which exact components it produces locally, it is difficult to get a full picture of the impact the several and simultaneous embargoes have.
Looking to the future
“Israel can manufacture alone and is already doing so in some cases. It is a matter of production lines that need to be established, and some of them presumably already exist,” Kalisky said. “There is no way to create an endless supply of things.”
“I am not hearing concern from Israeli manufacturers, but factories are certainly preparing themselves for the future,” said Catarivas, who is well acquainted with Israeli industries.
Israel was the ninth largest arms exporter in the world in 2023, according to data collected by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This generates billions of US dollars in profit for the country. Israel’s main sources of weapons are the US and Germany. Theoretically, it could use its position as leverage, which would be a major political decision.
Just before the war, Israel and Germany inked a deal that would see Germany purchase the Israeli Arrow 3 air defense system in one of the largest deals ever sealed by Israeli industries.
“Israeli exports have added value to the countries and the armies it exports to,” said Catarivas.
While Israeli officials have condemned the moves by several countries, there has been little display of major concern, aside from the American move, which raised alarms in the country.
“A lot of times, these decisions are declarative in order to placate public opinion in certain countries,” Catarivas added. “Often there is a gap between these declarations and what actually ends up happening on the ground.”