The IDF pendulum of upping and lowering its level of attacks on Hezbollah has been dizzying.
There was a clear linear escalation policy from last week up until Monday.Attacks numbering in the dozens jumped to hundreds and hundreds. Monday saw 1,300 strikes, making it the most destructive day of fighting with Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War (2006).By Tuesday, though, the IDF had slowed down. There were still hundreds of attacks, but the ratio dropped by at least five times the amount.This trend continued early Wednesday morning. The number reached as many as 280 strikes, but this is still down from the 1,300 it carried out on Monday.
In addition, the attacks seemed to mostly focus on southern Lebanon – less aggressive than Monday’s attacks, which targeted the deeper and more strategic Bekaa Valley. Bekaa is important to Hezbollah and holds longer-range, more powerful weapons.
New air strikes in Lebanon
At around 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, the IDF said it was unleashing another series of massive strikes – not just on southern Lebanon but also on Bekaa.The question that arises is: How massive are the attacks? After Hezbollah raised the ante by firing at Tel Aviv, other areas in central Israel, and areas south of Haifa on Wednesday, it was unclear if the varying degree of escalation of the IDF’s response would be factored in as something that could influence Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire separate from the Gaza one.If Israel is doing this to win time for diplomatic efforts, and if, behind the scenes, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah expresses more flexibility, then perhaps the pendulum strategy might have merit.If Israel is setting up the pieces for a much larger, imminent attack that could change Nasrallah’s calculus, then a very short pause could also make sense.But, if the pendulum of ups and downs in attacks is simply a sign that the government does not know what to do next, then the price for this indecision is placing a full third of the country – from Haifa northward – under lockdown now for five days with no end in sight. Other areas could soon meet the same fate.And, this is without factoring in the plight of those who have already been evacuated for nearly a year – 60,000 northern residents. This piles onto the 101 hostages still held in Gaza by Hamas, and the continuing drop in Israeli legitimacy commencing worldwide.