Hezbollah, on September 25, sought to target an area near Tel Aviv with a ballistic missile. Later, the group also targeted an area near Zicron Yaakov.
This represents the furthest extent of Hezbollah's attacks since it began its attacks on Israel on October 8. Hezbollah’s strikes on September 25 is apparently in response to Israel’s increased attacks on Israel that began over the past week and culminated in strikes on 1,600 targets on September 23.
This is not the first time Hezbollah has sought to target areas close to Tel Aviv. On August 25, a month before the September 25 ballistic missile launch, the group also claimed to target an area near Tel Aviv. Hassan Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah targeted the IDF’s 8200 unit at Glilot.
However, Hezbollah was frustrated in its August 25 attacks by an IDF preemptive strike that destroyed many Hezbollah launchers and prevented a larger attack. Instead, Hezbollah was able to launch several hundred rockets.
Now Hezbollah is back to targeting central Israel. It is doing this to expand the “equation” of its attacks. It usually targeted only Israeli border areas. When Israel struck the Bekaa valley, Hezbollah would usually claim to target other IDF sites in the Galilee, launching rockets at Mount Meron or areas near the Golani junction.
Ongoing military engagement following Israeli strikes
When Israel struck Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah commander, in Beirut in July, Hezbollah responded with the August 25 attack. Now, Israel has eliminated numerous Hezbollah commanders and carried out more strikes in Beirut. Hezbollah has responded by claiming to target the Ramat David airbase in the Jezreel valley.
Now, Hezbollah is upping its claims and its targets. Hezbollah appears proud of using a single ballistic missile in the September 25 attack. Hezbollah supposedly has an arsenal of 150,000 rockets, but some have been destroyed by Israel’s airstrikes. It has lost some of its medium and long-range missile capacity. It has also lost the ability to launch some of the rockets. Hezbollah still has precision-guided munitions and large numbers of drones.
It appears Hezbollah is not ready to unleash a large barrage against central Israel. It prefers small attacks using one missile, as in today’s case, or barrages of five or ten rockets targeting areas east of Haifa. Hezbollah also continues to keep up the image of targeting IDF sites and thus carrying on a “military vs military’ war. It wants to show it can go toe-to-toe with the IDF.
This is an illusion, but Hezbollah wants to maintain the illusion. For now, it has sought to increase the equation of launching deeper attacks into Israel as a new normal to confront Israel’s increased attacks in Lebanon.