Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent speech at the UN is more closely aligned with the reality of Israel’s security than it might seem, but it doesn’t signal good news.
Amid the IDF and intelligence community's impressive successes in Lebanon, the lack of a strategic vision to transform these gains into sweeping positive change is striking. More troubling is that while Netanyahu correctly identified the opportunities in his speech, his policies virtually guarantee that Israel will miss them.
In his speech to the UN General Assembly last week, Netanyahu used visual aids to illustrate the choices facing Israel and the region. In bright colors, one map represented what he called the "Blessing Plan," focusing on cooperation between nations striving for progress and stability, including Israel. The other, in dark colors, depicted Iran and its proxies—those fostering instability and harm—what Netanyahu termed the "Curse Plan."
While his portrayal was accurate, the conclusion was not. The map of the Middle East indeed shows two opposing camps. Still, in his policies, Netanyahu consciously distances Israel from the "Blessing" camp, condemning the country to ongoing confrontations with those in the "Curse" camp.
One camp, led by Iran, actively destabilizes the region through violence, seeking to expand its influence. The other, composed of Israel’s peace partners—Egypt, Jordan, the Abraham Accords signatories, and other Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia—are united by their fear of Iran and their commitment to regional stability, essential for realizing their economic growth visions, like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
For some time now, the "Blessing" camp has extended invitations for Israel to join its ranks, both in forming a regional coalition against Iran and in leveraging economic, technological, and other capacities for mutual benefit. This invitation also includes normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries, pending Israel’s decision.
At least five countries in this coalition—Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia—all of which oppose Hamas and its parent movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, have embraced Washington’s "Biden Initiative." This initiative coordinates efforts against Iran, as seen in the response to an Iranian attack last April, and contemplates taking responsibility for Gaza’s governance, including deploying ground forces.
To succeed in Gaza and across the region, the "Blessing" camp needs three shifts from Israel concerning the Palestinian issue.
First, an end to the fighting in the south, allowing for the deployment of their forces in coordination with Israel’s withdrawal.
Second, to avoid appearing as an occupying force, their involvement must be in response to an invitation from the Palestinian Authority (PA), recognized globally as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Their entry into Gaza would be a long-term but temporary solution to the PA’s inability to govern the Strip independently.
Third, to avoid the billions needed for Gaza’s reconstruction being squandered in another violent outbreak, they need Israel’s commitment to offering Palestinians a credible political horizon, even if its implementation takes years. This political outlook could counter Hamas’s ideology of despair and deter young Palestinians from joining terror organizations.
At the UN headquarters, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud emphasized the centrality of the Palestinian issue, announcing the formation of an "International Alliance to Promote a Two-State Solution." He stated, "Implementing the two-state solution is the best way to break the cycle of conflicts and suffering and establish a new reality where the entire region—including Israel—enjoys security and coexistence."
Despite Israel's attempts to convince moderate Arab states (and its public) that normalizing relations does not hinge on the Palestinian issue, it seems that even those countries that have already normalized relations with Israel disagree. The UAE's freezing of joint projects and its government’s decreased communication with Israel suggest otherwise. So does Saudi Arabia’s new initiative.
Ongoing conflict
The October 7 trauma and the ensuing war have highlighted for many countries the detrimental impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on their vital interests. Although this conflict is deeply ingrained in Israel’s national psyche, and setting a border with the Palestinians is essential for its future as a Jewish and democratic state, these nations have shifted their rhetoric to action, embracing a two-state solution.
As Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bluntly put it, "No relations with Israel will be established before progress is made toward establishing a Palestinian state."
Netanyahu’s refusal to meet these expectations deprives Israel of a historic opportunity to join a regional coalition and normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and others. It also stifles the chance to achieve the primary goal of returning the hostages and withdrawing from Gaza while preventing the resurgence of the Hamas threat.
Moreover, rejecting the "Blessing Plan" forces Israel to confront the "Curse Plan" under increasingly harsh conditions, including a bloody, ongoing occupation of Gaza, a West Bank devolving into Gaza-like chaos, and growing international isolation, potentially leading to sanctions and legal actions in international courts.
Whether Netanyahu’s stance is driven by his dependence on his ultra-nationalist coalition partners or by a worldview that prefers managing conflict instability (which led to October 7) over cautiously advancing toward its resolution, his policies outline a deeply problematic path. This is particularly troubling when the security forces have provided him with optimal conditions to shift direction, take initiative, and enlist regional support for Israel.
The IDF and other security agencies have rebounded from the failures of October 7, proving their capabilities every day. It is time for the political leadership to recover as well, abandon the strategy that brought about Israel’s worst disaster since its founding, and adopt a security doctrine that combines military strength with both local and regional political arrangements.
Tamir Pardo is a former head of Mossad. He is a member of the Commanders for Israel's Security organization. Dr. Nimrod Novik was the senior political advisor to the late Prime Minister Shimon Peres, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, and a fellow at the Economic Cooperation Foundation.