It’s been 25 years since Israel and Jordan signed a peace treaty. But relations are at their lowest point since 1995 amid growing concern over security ties along Israel’s longest border.
In an interview with Der Spiegel, Jordan’s King Abdullah – whose father, King Hussein, signed the historic peace treaty with Yitzhak Rabin in 1995 – warned that if Israel annexes settlement blocs, not only could it cause an increase in regional extremism, it could lead to a clash with the kingdom.
“Leaders who advocate a one-state solution do not understand what that would mean,” he said. “What would happen if the Palestinian National Authority collapsed? There would be more chaos and extremism in the region. If Israel really annexes the West Bank in July, it would lead to a massive conflict with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.”
If one wants to pinpoint when ties between the Jewish state and the Hashemite Kingdom started to falter, you would have to go back to July 2017, when an Israeli Embassy guard killed two Jordanian civilians in Amman after being attacked by one of them wielding a screwdriver.
The guard, who was first held by Jordanian security forces, was later allowed to be extradited back to Israel despite public outcry against King Abdullah. The guard received a hero’s welcome by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Three years later, the acrimonious relationship between the two leaders remains clear to see.
While Netanyahu has met with Abdullah several times since he became prime minister, in recent years he’s only met with the king once. According to reports, an anxious Amman requested that no cameras or media be present at the meeting.
Abdullah also does not take phone calls from Netanyahu and last August refused to meet him, with a Jordanian official saying the rebuff was made “in light of the difficult relations between Jordan and Israel.”
The two countries didn’t even mark the peace treaty signed between the two on October 26, 1994.
It’s that bad.
The diplomatic strains have only deepened as Israel seems to be rolling full steam ahead on Netanyahu’s plan to annex the Jordan Valley and West Bank settlements in July, a move Abdullah told Der Speigel his government continues to review.
“I do not want to jump to statements and threats, and I will not prepare the ground for confrontation, but we are studying all the options and formulating understandings with many European countries and the international community,” he said.
But despite the threats coming from Amman and the seeming lack of concern coming from Jerusalem, both governments and militaries agree on the need to keep security relations close.
Israel’s defense establishment understands the need to prevent a collapse of such ties, as the two countries have robust security coordination and intelligence sharing regarding their common threats. According to foreign reports, Jordan has allowed Israeli jets to use its airspace for its war-between-wars campaign in Syria.
The strategic depth provided by Jordan, which has not entered into any alliance with neighboring countries hostile to Israel, has kept Israel’s eastern and longest border the quietest and safest for 25 years.
Both Jordan and Israel understand that should security ties fail, not only will King Abdullah face instability at home, but the violence could spill over the border to Israel.
With a majority of Jordan’s citizens of Palestinian descent, Palestinian self-determination and maintaining the status quo of al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem are key aspects of public discourse in Amman and contribute to the cooling relationship between the neighboring countries.
In March, Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Razzaz told CNN: “Today, we are at the lowest level in the relationship that has been since signing the peace treaty,” and he warned that the peace treaty was at risk.
Razzaz also denounced Israel’s alleged “violations of the sanctity of Muslim and Christian endowments in Jerusalem.”
While Netanyahu and Abdullah both recognize the need to keep the peace, domestic pressures in Jordan might make it difficult for the king to continue it at the low-profile level it currently stands.
That would not be good for either side.