A recent poll suggests that a potential new party headed by Naftali Bennett could become a key player in the next Israeli elections, potentially disrupting the current political balance.
Although most estimates suggest that the coalition's position has stabilized recently, and the likelihood of toppling the government and calling early elections has significantly diminished, it has not been entirely ruled out.
Key figures within the political system are using the Knesset recess to organize politically and prepare for potential future elections. The central question on everyone’s mind: What existing or new political force can break the current status quo and bring meaningful change? It seems pollsters may have an answer to this crucial question.
Maariv has obtained an extensive poll conducted in recent weeks by one of the country’s leading research institutes, commissioned by a major political party. What makes this poll particularly intriguing is its division into two parts. In addition to gauging current voting intentions, the poll explores four scenarios involving potential new parties for the upcoming elections.
The portion of the poll describing the current political landscape offers few surprises. According to the results, the National Unity Party, with 24 seats, and Likud, with 23 seats, are essentially in a state of electoral parity. Yisrael Beiteinu, with 14 seats, and Otzma Yehudit, with 10 seats, are the parties that have gained the most in recent months.
The poll indicates that, under the current political circumstances, the opposition, with 58 seats, cannot form an alternative government without the support of coalition members or an Arab party. In the second stage of the poll, four different scenarios of potential party configurations for the upcoming elections are examined. A new party led by Naftali Bennett is projected to receive 22 seats, potentially becoming the surprise of the elections.
Where does support for Bennet come from?
According to the poll, most of Bennett's support comes from undecided voters (a development that should worry Likud and its bloc partners), as well as from voters of the National Unity Party (around six seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (three seats), and the National Right (two seats).
In this scenario, Bennett's party becomes a potential kingmaker, capable of either granting a majority to the current coalition parties (46+22=68) or to the opposition, excluding the Arab parties (43+22=65).
The pollster was asked to profile the typical Bennett voter of 2024. It turns out that Bennett's supporters are characterized by relatively high percentages of traditionalists (42%), high-income earners (39%), individuals with academic education (51%), residents of the Central District (29%), self-identified centrists (66%), and a vast majority who intend to vote for the current opposition parties (90%). This suggests that Naftali Bennett is likely to build his strength primarily on voters opposed to Netanyahu and his government, with little cross-bloc vote transfer.
In addition to Bennett's independent run, the poll examines several possible mergers. This comes in the context of recent talks to form a liberal right-wing party, which have not progressed and have stalled in the early stages of exploration.
According to the poll, a merger between Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu would yield 25 seats, significantly fewer than if the two parties ran separately (22 for Bennett + 11 for Yisrael Beiteinu = 33). This result is consistent with internal polls commissioned by Yisrael Beiteinu, which sought to determine whether a potential merger with one or more parties could significantly increase their seats.
A combination of the unified Lieberman-Bennett party with the opposition (35 seats) would result in 60 seats, which is not enough to form an alternative government. A merger between Naftali Bennett and Benny Gantz's National Unity Party would give the combined party 28 seats, most of which (around 15) would come from the National Unity Party itself, another six from undecided voters, and the remainder from other parties. Even in this scenario, the opposition would reach a total of 60 seats, insufficient to form a government without additional support.
In the final scenario examined, two new parties are in the running: a party led by Naftali Bennett and a joint party called "Israeli Future" – a union of Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid. In this case, the Israeli Future Party would receive 25 seats, while Naftali Bennett would garner 17.
Most Israeli Future voters would come from those who intend to vote for the National Unity Party (12 seats) or Yesh Atid (eight seats). A combination of Bennett and the new party with the rest of the current opposition parties would yield 61 seats, allowing for the formation of a narrow alternative coalition.
In conclusion, the scenario with the highest likelihood of forming an alternative government is one in which Naftali Bennett’s party is added to the existing opposition parties. In all other scenarios examined, the total number of seats would reach, at most, 61 or just 60.