Netanyahu, Gantz tied, Bennett a potential disruptor: How are Israel's parties polling? - N12 poll

Netanyahu's Likud party is stabilizing, while his coalition partners see a drop in mandates. Where do parties stand should elections be called?

 (L-R) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, August 4, 2024, Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, September 11 2023, Opposition Leader and Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid, August 14 2024. (photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90, Chaim Goldberg/Flash90, NAAMA GRYNBAUM/POOL/FLASH 90)
(L-R) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, August 4, 2024, Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, September 11 2023, Opposition Leader and Yesh Atid Chairman Yair Lapid, August 14 2024.
(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90, Chaim Goldberg/Flash90, NAAMA GRYNBAUM/POOL/FLASH 90)

If elections were to be held in Israel today, there would be a tie between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Benny Gantz's National Unity parties, each securing 22 mandates, a Channel 12 poll found on Thursday. 

Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, would be the third largest with approximately 15 mandates, while Yisrael Beitenu, led by Avigdor Liberman, would hold 14 mandates, increasing from its current 6, the Channel 12 poll noted. 

The parties that would fall below the electoral threshold are Religious Zionism, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Arab party Balad, and Gideon Sa'ar's party. 

The Democrats, the newly formed union between Labor and Meretz and led by Yair Golan, would win 11 mandates, and Shas, headed by Aryeh Deri, would secure 10.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party would drop to eight mandates. The poll noted that United Torah Judaism, led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, would receive eight mandates as well. Arab parties Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al would each secure five mandates. 

National Unity MK Benny Gantz seen during a plenum session at the assembly hall of the Knesset, in Jerusalem, August 14, 2024 (credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
National Unity MK Benny Gantz seen during a plenum session at the assembly hall of the Knesset, in Jerusalem, August 14, 2024 (credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

Should election results reflect the poll numbers, Channel 12 predicted that the current governing coalition would have 48 mandates while the opposition would have 67. 

Channel 12 also polled potential candidates not currently in the Knesset. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, should he re-enter politics, has the potential to gain 21 mandates. In this case, Netanyahu's Likud would drop to 19, Gantz's National Unity at 13, and Yesh Atid and the Democrats at 11 mandates. 

If Bennett would gain this number of mandates, a coalition government could potentially have 71 mandates, while the opposition would sit at 44, Channel 12 noted.