The current government has remained steadfast since October 7, surprising many in its ability to weather storm after storm and remain in power. Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Israelis prefer an early election to the government living out its days.
But Israelis are divided on whether or not an election should be held during wartime – and with the northern front heating up and chances for a ceasefire in Gaza fading, the end of the war is not in sight.
Still, three major issues in the coming months could lead to the government’s downfall in the upcoming Knesset winter session, which begins on October 28.
The first is the ongoing crisis over the haredi (ultra Orthodox) IDF draft. Barring a new draft law to regulate an exemption for this demographic, all military-age haredi men are required by law to enlist in the IDF.
As long as they do not, they risk economic sanctions, including an end to daycare subsidies for their children, which could cost them hundreds and even thousands of shekels a month.
The haredi parties do not have a better possible coalition than the current one, but may eventually leave the government regardless, if they come to the conclusion that they cannot be a part of the mechanism that is forcing their constituents into the army.
The second issue is the 2025 budget. The government is far behind schedule in preparing the budget, which is expected to include many unpopular tax hikes and cuts in government services. Israeli law requires that the budget pass by December 31, and if it does not pass by March 31, 2025, the government falls automatically. The prime minister may eventually decide to go to an election rather than risk facing public backlash over the budget.
The third issue is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s testimony in his criminal trial, which is currently scheduled to begin in early December.
Taking the witness stand during wartime for several hours three times a week, for what could take a number of weeks, will not bode well for the him, and he may decide to move toward a plea bargain or another measure that could also bring about an election.
THESE FACTORS bring into focus the next election – and the question of whether we will witness a joining of right-wing forces to form a new party, whose leader could become the next prime minister. Much has been said about such a party, with names thrown about including former prime minister Naftali Bennett, former interior minister and justice minister Ayelet Shaked, former Mossad head Yossi Cohen (who has in the meantime announced that he would not run), former communications minister Yoaz Hendel, Yisrael Beytenu chairman MK Avigdor Liberman, and United Right chairman MK Gideon Sa’ar.
Bennett has already decided that he is returning to politics, Shaked has yet to decide, and Hendel looks like he is on his way back in as well.
Will these figures join forces? If so, how could it affect Israel’s political system moving forward?
Poll shows who's next?
A poll conducted in late July of approximately 1,000 respondents found that the two key personalities in answering this question are Bennett and Liberman.
Polls are only true for when they were conducted, and still have margins of error that make them reliable to a limited extent. What matters more than any individual poll are trends – and the July poll, which was conducted by a leading Israeli pollster and obtained by Maariv, was indicative of these trends.
THE POLL showed that Bennett running at the head of an independent party would win 22 seats, more than the Likud (21) and Benny Gantz’s National Unity (15). Liberman would receive 11 seats, and Yesh Atid would wrap up the top five close behind with 10 seats.
In this scenario, Bennett would be the kingmaker, and could very well become the king himself – he would be able to form a 68-MK coalition with the current coalition parties, a 65-MK coalition with the current Jewish opposition parties, or a whopping 79-MK coalition with the aforementioned top five, leaving out the Arab parties, the haredim, the far Right, and the Left.
The survey showed that if Bennett joins forces with Liberman, the joint party would win 25 seats, less than the combined 33 seats if they run separately.
The Likud would win 23, National Unity 16, Yesh Atid 11, and Otzma Yehudit and Shas would tie for fifth place at 10 seats. In this scenario, the center-right coalition would shrink from 79 to 72 seats, while the Bennett-Liberman party would not be able to form a coalition with the current one (58 seats) nor with the current Jewish opposition (60 seats).
The X factor, however, is where Bennett and Liberman draw their voters from, according to Tal Shalev, Walla News political analyst and Knesset TV anchor.
Bennett or Liberman?
Shalev explained in an interview with The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday that Bennett’s voters came from people who were either undecided, or who were already opposition voters – most of whom are currently planning to vote for Gantz. Liberman, however, is the only figure with the ability to draw voters away from the Likud, and thus create a shift in the general picture of political camps, Shalev argued.
Liberman in July posted a picture of himself meeting with Bennett, leading to a wave of speculations. The Israel Beytenu leader was quick to dispel rumors, saying that there were no negotiations currently being held; Shalev said that the two were unable to come to a decision about who would lead a future party.
The aforementioned poll did not specify who would stand at the head of a joint Bennett-Liberman party, and Shalev said that the two will likely wait until an election is officially announced before coming to a decision about whether or not to merge – and if so, which one of them will be the party’s candidate for prime minister.
WHILE LIBERMAN has been steadily gaining in polls since the war began, Sa’ar’s United Right Party has consistently failed to pass the electoral threshold of 3.25% of the general vote since breaking away from National Unity in March.
Sa’ar has said that he is confident he will perform better than expected, and gives as an example the municipal elections in February, in which his party’s candidates did just that, indicating grassroots support that has not necessarily been reflected in polls.
However, contrary to Liberman, who has flatly refused to join the current government, Sa’ar has not rejected the possibility of rejoining it. His low polling numbers give him limited leverage in a future potential merger with Bennett and Liberman, and unlike both of them, he has a base of support in the Likud and for a long time was considered a potential successor to Netanyahu.
Sa’ar’s official position at the moment is that he has not been offered anything concrete, but was finished with the “discourse of boycotts,” meaning that he no longer ruled out joining Netanyahu.
However, the United Right leader reportedly will only agree to do so if he becomes defense minister instead of current defense minister Yoav Gallant, and Netanyahu will not easily take the step of removing Gallant, after an attempt to do so in March 2023 failed due to the outbreak of unprecedented protests. Sa’ar’s position in the next election is therefore unclear at the moment.
SHAKED IS a strong supporter of a large union among the Right, and believes that Liberman and Bennett will eventually decide to run together. However, she is uncertain herself about whether or not she will return to politics, and her decision could eventually depend on whether or not the merger happens.
Hendel, on the other hand, appears poised to run independently. A former officer in Shayetet 13 (Israel’s equivalent of Navy Seals) and a current battalion commander in the IDF reserves, he has spent most of his time since October 7 in military service, including operating for extended periods within Gaza. In his spare time, Hendel founded a movement called “The Miluimniks” (reservists).
Hendel has said that many reservists he has encountered believe that Israel’s divisive politics does not reflect the reality on the ground, in which soldiers from different backgrounds risked their lives for each other, and that the country deserved leadership that reflected this.
Hendel’s movement has already held a number of events and is working to expand a base of supporters that he said has already reached over 15,000 people. Hendel has stressed that the movement is not a political party, but rather that its aim is to create change in general, with a political party being just one way out of many to do so.
However, the former communications minister has been buoyed by a number of polls that have shown him receiving over five seats even with all of the other right-wing figures entering the political arena as well. Hendel therefore seems poised to run independently of the others, but this could change depending on the political frameworks that eventually emerge once an election is announced.
Indeed, much can still change before Israel heads to its next election, which is currently scheduled for October 2026, more than two years down the road. What already seems clear, however, is that the camps that defined Israeli politics since it began its cycle of elections in 2019 – which largely coalesced around the pro-Netanyahu vs. anti-Netanyahu axis – will change.
The spell that Israel’s longest-serving prime minister has cast on Israeli politics for two decades seems to have ended; the October 7 massacre and ensuing war has made national security a primary concern, with the economy and proper governance likely to come next.