War can sometimes be like a boxing match. “Psyching out” your opponent goes a long way toward winning. Just ask anyone who followed the career of perhaps the greatest boxer of all, Muhammad Ali. From pre-fight bravado to the in-fight “rope-a-dope,” Ali, certainly a masterful physical fighter, used his psychological skills to wear down his opponents in a way that made his punches more powerful.
In the boxing match between Israel and Hezbollah that has been going on, round after round, for the last 11 months, neither side yet set up its opponent for the knockout punch.
While it seems that Hezbollah is about to be knocked out, its Islamist ideology, proscribing surrender, still presents a barrier to be penetrated.
The almost-hard-to-believe recent pager caper and subsequent walkie-talkie strike have the potential to breach that barrier. Until now, the tit-for-tat exchange of punches has come from both sides, but there has been no single punch that has left the other teetering and dizzy, ripe to receive a knockout punch that will end the match.
There is a psychological asymmetry in fighting an Islamist opponent, which works against the stronger party. If Hezbollah survives, it can claim victory. And, just as for Hamas – its ideological twin in Gaza, – sacrificing the lives of its people does not deter Hezbollah from continuing the fight.
So how will psychological pressure work against those whose value system is such that conventional losses are computed on a scale different from what Western culture is used to?
No doubt, Hezbollah is now insecure, anxious, and vulnerable, with even its corner team, or what’s left of it, questioning how to proceed. Any reaction it has will likely stem from unsettled panic rather than strategic calm.
Whatever happens from this point, it needs to deepen the group’s psychological insecurity, isolation, and shock before time passes, allowing for the effect to dissipate.
Israel's strike on Hezbollah commanders
Last Friday night’s hit on Hezbollah’s senior command, followed by the massive air attacks the next evening, have kept Hezbollah off-balance. But in an Islamist world, a belief system that stands against reality provides the fuel to continue. Unless the cost-benefit ratio of adhering to that ideology changes, Hezbollah will continue to fight and attack as long as it can – however it can.
Yet, unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah faces real opposition within Lebanon – despite claiming to be Lebanese patriots. While that cover has so far allowed it to carry out the wishes and strategy of its Iranian masters, it is nevertheless the Lebanese people who may becomes Hezbollah’s Achilles heel enabling its “psyching out.” Alienating the non-Shiite population of Lebanon is not a Hezbollah interest.
That is why the pressure against the terror organization needs to come from Lebanon – and Israel’s psychological war needs to be directed not only against the Hezbollah command but also at the Lebanese civilians Hezbollah purports to protect.
In a country with an economy already in shambles, the psychological effects of any action that strains civil society will eventually find their way up to those who can change things –and Hezbollah will be targeted.
For an organization whose motivation stems from an unwavering ideology, conventional reality testing does not come easy, but history has taught that it nevertheless sets limits to its losses. We don’t know what Hezbollah’s breaking point will be, but Israel must continue to take steps that deepen the psychological effect on Lebanon.
Overburdened hospitals, destroyed neighborhoods, fear for personal safety, a valueless currency, and a major economic crisis will break most people and perhaps these broken people will break Hezbollah – creating a face-saving “out” for the group from the crisis it has created.
Until it is knocked out, Hezbollah will continue to fight. That is why Israel must make sure that the psychological advantage stays right where it is at the moment.
The writer, a PhD, is a senior fellow and analyst in political psychology at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a member of the Emergency Division of the IDF Home Front Command.