As US presses for Lebanon ceasefire, what might Israel's security list include? - analysis

Defense sources listed potential terms that Israel may demand to agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

  IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. October 14, 2024. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. October 14, 2024.
(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

The US is trying to nail Israel’s security requirements down for a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Defense sources listed potential conditions that Israel could demand in order to agree to a ceasefire.

This could include official enforcement to prevent arms smuggling into Lebanon from Syria even after a ceasefire (complicated because it could impact Syria as well), permitting the IDF to reinvade Lebanon in targeted ways in defined situations to prevent a Hezbollah return to southern Lebanon, increasing UNIFIL from 10,000 to 15,000 troops and with more aggressive rules of engagement to act against Hezbollah, and formally allowing the IDF to collect intelligence on potential Hezbollah moves in southern Lebanon.

However, defense sources also said that until there was a sense that Hezbollah might accept a strongly improved version of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, with an overriding enforcement apparatus that the resolution lacked, there was not much point in delving into the details.

Further, some in the defense establishment believe that the IDF may need months instead of weeks to continue to weaken Hezbollah’s invasion capabilities and aerial attack capabilities.

 IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon uncover Hezbollah weapons, October 13, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon uncover Hezbollah weapons, October 13, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)

The response that's yet to come

Moreover, Israel is expected soon to attack Iran, and with that action creating an unpredictable situation, many defense officials view entering the details of security needs as premature.

On Monday, Hezbollah launched three surface-to-surface missiles at central Israel, activating sirens in over 180 localities and making millions of Israelis enter bomb shelters. The IAF successfully intercepted the missiles and struck the sources of the launches.

Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.