Israel is not ready for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, even as the military has begun to set out the security requirements necessary for such an agreement.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held security consultations in the Defense Ministry on Monday night to discuss Israel’s response to Sunday’s armed drone attack and the IDF’s pending retaliatory strike on Iran.
Israel has received indirect “requests from Hezbollah and Iran” for a ceasefire, a source told The Jerusalem Post, “but Israel doesn’t want a ceasefire” at this time, given it is still carrying out its military campaign to weaken the Iranian proxy group in Lebanon.
Calls for a ceasefire have grown significantly from the United States and the international community; the United Nations Security Count held two back-to-back closed-door meetings in Lebanon in New York on Monday.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told Defense Minister Yoav Gallant three times in the last five days that Israel needs to “pivot” from a military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon to diplomacy.
Some in the defense establishment believe that the IDF may need months, instead of weeks, to continue to weaken Hezbollah’s abilities to invade Israel on the ground or attack it from the air.
Hezbollah's border entrenchment
The IDF last week brought reporters into Lebanon to see firsthand how Hezbollah entrenched itself along the border, using homes and civilian infrastructure as shields.
Israel’s pending attack on Iran could also create an unpredictable regional situation so that a discussion of security details for a ceasefire would be premature.
The US, however, has tried to nail down security requirements that are beyond obvious: Hezbollah must be moved back to the Litani River as mandated under UNSC Resolution 1701, which set out the ceasefire terms that ended the Second Lebanon War (2006). Calls to implement 1701 have been made for months now – a ceasefire deal would have to include something different.
Defense sources said that some of the components could include official enforcement to prevent arms smuggling into Lebanon from Syria, even after the cessation of hostilities.
This could be complicated because it could impact Syria as well.
The IDF would want the ability to re-invade Lebanon in targeted ways and in defined situations to prevent a Hezbollah return to southern Lebanon.
The troop requirement for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) could be expanded from 10,000 to 15,000 peacekeepers. UNIFIL could also be given more aggressive rules of engagement to act against Hezbollah. The IDF could also be formally allowed to collect intelligence on potential Hezbollah moves in southern Lebanon.
Defense sources said, however, that until there is a sense that Hezbollah might accept a strongly-improved version of 1701, with an overriding enforcement apparatus that the resolution lacks, there was not much point in delving into the details.