Hamas still has a funcitoning organizational hierarchy even after the death of Yahya Sinwar, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, chairman of Bitchonistim (Security Experts), explained on Thursday,
In his conversation with Maariv, Avivi commented on the IDF’s report suggesting that Sinwar might have been eliminated in Gaza: “We have to admit that it’s still unclear whether Sinwar is alive or not, but it seems his brother is highly active and running things. So even if Sinwar has been, or will be, taken out, unless his brother and two or three other central figures are also eliminated, breaking Hamas’ hierarchical structure will be difficult.”
Avivi noted that Sinwar’s brother was responsible for the captivity of Gilad Shalit, and that no prisoner exchange would happen without securing his own release.
Will Hamas follow Hezbollah's lead?
Avivi added: “We’ve seen with Hezbollah that even after the assassination of its entire leadership, the organization didn’t collapse. This is partly because the command is distributed across smaller units that keep functioning, and also due to the strong ideological and religious fervor that drives these organizations.”
He further elaborated on the regional context, stating: “It’s very difficult to predict how things will unfold. It also ties into what’s happening in the north, with Hezbollah distancing itself from Gaza and showing a willingness for a ceasefire independent of the Strip. This isolates Hamas further. At the same time, pressure is mounting on the Houthis and Iran. It looks like this will be a decisive year.” Avivi concluded: “If Sinwar is dead, it would deal a severe blow to Hamas and could potentially open the door to a hostage deal or signal the beginning of the group’s disintegration.”