Some Israelis are raising their shot glasses and cheering the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election. Others are stomping away in anger and frustration.
Many Israelis say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a mini-Trump, even wearing a long red tie like Trump’s when he’s in Washington. Many of those Israelis believe that’s a good thing, giving Netanyahu an inside track when it comes to coordinating with Trump and guiding policies. Others believe it’s a disaster for both countries given the two leaders’ shared style of divisive, inflammatory leadership.
None of the Israeli excitement or distress about Trump’s second term really matters. Following Trump’s victory, Israel needs to take a long step back, a very deep breath, and a cool assessment of how to proceed.
Israeli response
A proper Israeli response has several levels. The immediate challenge is how to handle a war on two fronts as Trump takes office. Then there’s the matter of shaping policy to account for the many actions the unpredictable Trump might adopt as president. Israel also needs to reach out to Trump’s new coalition of working classes of all shades, people who used to vote for Democrats but switched to Trump this time. And Israel must repair its ties with the Democratic Party as the party reconstitutes itself to match the new reality.
In other words, as hard as this might sound—Israelis must put all passions aside and deal with the new situation pragmatically.
Trump has given mixed signals concerning the war in Gaza and Lebanon. There are reports he has demanded that Israel end the war on both fronts before he takes office on January 20. There are also reports that he wants Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon crushed.
The most logical Israeli position, though it might be hard to accomplish, is to fulfill both goals—find a way to end the wars while preserving the IDF's accomplishments and solidifying them with diplomatic arrangements, including freedom for the Israeli hostages—and do it all in two months. Difficult? For sure. Impossible? You won’t know until you try.
Not on this list of quick fixes is Iran. No doubt that Trump’s team would love to see Israel alone handle Iran and alone absorb the return fire. Israel needs to resist that. The Iran issue could be part of a quiet package deal with Washington—fulfilling US demands in Gaza and Lebanon while the US keeps its navy on Iran’s doorstep, ready to retaliate if provoked. After all, Iran is a world problem, not only Israel’s. The same applies to the Houthis in Yemen, who are disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
The uncertainties of Trump’s policies and actions require Israel to be flexible. One master plan isn’t enough. Israel needs to prepare for the prospect of full American support, for the prospect of no American support, and all the possibilities in between. Israel, especially under the current government, is not known for its look-ahead strategic vision. The lack of a day-after plan in Gaza is stark evidence of that.
In the longer term, Israel must recognize that the American electorate is different from what it was just a few years ago. It’s easy to disparage Trump’s new coalition, but that coalition is very real. Working-class voters from across the spectrum—whites, Hispanics, even Blacks—teamed up to put Trump back in the White House.
Leading up to the election, anti-Israel campus encampments and “progressive” pronouncements for women and transgender people and against Israel and Jews were given outsized coverage in the media—especially on social, or should I say, antisocial, media. Meanwhile, Trump’s new coalition was telling everyone who would listen that those aren’t the issues that matter.
Not so concerned with Gaza
The majority of Americans are much more concerned about inflation, the cost of living, and immigration than they are with Gaza. It can be said that aspects of economic and immigration issues were overblown and misrepresented, but a politician (or an allied country) who ignores the clear signals of the voters is doomed to failure.
For Israel, paying attention to American voters means less railing against professional haters and campus extremists and more attention to how Israel can, and does, improve the lives of ordinary Americans, from Waze to medicines to computer chips.
Mending fences with the Democrats might be the toughest challenge. Israel was once a bipartisan issue in the US, enjoying wide support from both Democrats and Republicans. That unraveled a decade ago during the US-led negotiations with Iran over limiting its nuclear weapons program.
It doesn’t matter who was right and who was wrong. In March 2015, Netanyahu flew to Washington to address a joint session of Congress in March 2015 to make the case against the deal, at a time when the accord was already completed. That was seen by Democrats as a resounding slap in the face and an unforgivable insult to President Barack Obama.
Funnily enough, Trump’s clear victory gives Israel a chance to mend fences with the Democratic Party. Democrats know they must change gears and reconfigure their policies to fit the new electoral reality. Israel can march alongside them in that effort, reaching out to unions, teachers, social welfare organizations, and community action groups and explaining what Israel actually is and how it can help. That’s a long-term project, but a necessary one.
When I wrote earlier that Israel should pay less attention to “progressives,” I put quotes around the term. That’s because today’s “progressives” are not the ones I grew up with. The ones I grew up with marched for civil rights, vocally supported programs to help people help themselves, and had many Jews among their leaders. Today, Jewish progressives find themselves unwelcome by so-called “progressives” who demand total acceptance of their entire orthodoxy, especially their irrationally hate for the world’s only Jewish state.
If Democrats succeed in rebuilding their party according to the new reality, those “progressives” might find themselves where they belong—far outside the mainstream and outside the Democratic Party.
That would be good news for Israel, too.