Fewer images capture Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s determination to keep his government intact no matter the cost than one that emerged from the Knesset on Tuesday.
The photo shows a pale, visibly tired Netanyahu, wearing a yellow hospital ID bracelet, sitting at the government table in the Knesset just two days after undergoing prostate surgery.
Fewer images as well capture the problems that Netanyahu’s government faces, because it wasn’t opposition MKs who forced Netanyahu to leave his hospital bed to vote on a key element of the 2025 budget – the so-called Trapped Profits Law – it was members of his own coalition.
More precisely, it was National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who, along with four other members of his six-person Otzma Yehudit faction, voted against the measure (Almog Cohen broke party discipline and voted with the coalition). One United Torah Judaism MK also voted against it, two others abstained, and the measure passed by a narrow 59–58 margin.
Not only did the renegade coalition members drag Netanyahu from his sickbed – against his doctor’s orders – but they also forced Likud MK Boaz Bismuth to abandon the shiva home where he was mourning the death of his mother and rush to the Knesset for the vote, still wearing the black shirt he tore as a traditional sign of mourning.
Had Netanyahu and Bismuth not shown up for the vote, the measure wouldn’t have passed, placing in jeopardy the entire 2025 budget. That budget needs to pass by March 31. If it doesn’t, then this will automatically trigger elections.
The sight of a visibly weak Netanyahu and a mourning Bismuth in the Knesset to secure a crucial vote is a stark illustration of the fragility and internal strife plaguing this government two years after its formation.
Indeed, that two-year anniversary, which passed on Sunday, was marked by a striking absence of fanfare. There was none of the usual chest-thumping that governments often indulge in when they pass a landmark anniversary.
Rather than trumpeting his government’s achievements, Netanyahu was instead forced to issue a statement calling on “all members of the coalition, including Minister Ben-Gvir, to cease rocking the coalition and endangering the existence of a right-wing government during a momentous time in the annals of Israel.”
“There is no greater irresponsible folly,” Netanyahu said after the vote, “than to shake up the coalition at this time or risk toppling a right-wing government.”
This incident underscores the precarious nature of Netanyahu’s coalition, which is held together by a thin margin, riddled with ideological differences – particularly over issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription – and beset by both economic and political challenges.
And that is in addition to having to manage a seven-front war.
Netanyahu's dependency?
The incident also reveals the degree to which Netanyahu is dependent on Ben-Gvir.
Had Netanyahu the political capital to do so, he would not only have scolded Ben-Gvir but fired him, as Ariel Sharon did in 2004 to five Shinui cabinet ministers when they voted against his budget.
However, Netanyahu dares not fire Ben-Gvir. His fear is that such an action could unravel the coalition entirely.
With the addition of Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope Party in September, Netanyahu was expected to have a firmer grip on his government, as his majority would go from 64 seats to 68.
Yet this increased strength did not alleviate his dependence on Ben-Gvir, particularly due to the ongoing tensions with the haredi parties over the long-simmering issue of haredi conscription.
The reason Ben-Gvir gave for voting against the budget this time had to do with not being allocated sufficient funds for the police, which is under the purview of his ministry.
When he voted two weeks ago against the budget in its first reading, his reason was different: the failure to fire Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara.
While Ben-Gvir’s excuse varies from vote to vote and week to week, the anger of the haredi parties is consistent and has to do with the failure of the government to pass legislation that would anchor wholesale draft exemptions for yeshiva students into law.
That two UTJ MKs abstained and one voted against the bill on Tuesday is a signal of intent and signals the potential for even greater turmoil inside the coalition.
While Netanyahu could withstand the mutiny of Ben-Gvir’s party, with its six votes, he could not withstand the mutiny of Ben-Gvir and UTJ, or even just the Agudat Yisrael faction within the UTJ. That is something that would bring down his government.
In a surprising twist, however, Netanyahu gained another vote when former defense minister Yoav Gallant – who has not voted with the coalition since being fired in November – resigned from the Knesset on Wednesday.
Ben-Gvir’s vote against the bill on Tuesday, and his unwillingness – like the opposition – to keep a party member from voting to offset Netanyahu so as not to force him out of the hospital to vote, was a calculated move to assert his influence and signal to Netanyahu about who is in charge.
Ben-Gvir is trying to burnish his credentials as the leader of the “true” right wing, as opposed to the ersatz right wing of the Likud. His motto is that the Likud talks a right-wing game, but its policies don’t match the talk.
He is also separating himself from the Religious Zionist Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, with whom he ran on a unified ticket last time that won 14 seats.
The current polls are showing, on average, that if elections were held today, Ben-Gvir would win seven seats, and Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party only four.
What are Ben-Gvir's challenges?
Ben-Gvir’s challenge at this time is not without risks for him – it could create an internal dynamic leading to elections that he might not want right now but will be difficult to stop once unleashed. It is also not clear whether humiliating Netanyahu is something that plays well with the right-wing camp.
If KAN broadcaster Rina Matsliah – who is no fan of Netanyahu, and that is an understatement – said this week that she felt bad for Netanyahu that he was dragged out of his hospital bed on Tuesday, then one could only imagine how the rank and file of the Likud feels about this ploy.
And at the core of this episode is Ben-Gvir’s desire to garner political support from the right-wing rank and file ahead of the next elections.
WHILE THE second-year anniversary of this government passed with barely a mention, it is not an insignificant milestone.
First of all, the very fact that the government reached this anniversary despite the judicial reform upheaval, October 7 and the ensuing war is a testament to Netanyahu’s dogged determination to stay in power.
Second, it is a good time to measure the government’s achievements against the goals it set for itself two years ago, goals obviously turned on their head by the current war.
At the first cabinet meeting after the government was sworn in, Netanyahu outlined four key goals: halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, restoring security and governance in Israel, addressing the cost of living and the housing crisis, and expanding the Abraham Accords.
On one of these fronts, Netanyahu has made notable progress: Iran’s hegemonic ambitions have suffered a significant setback due to the ongoing war. While its nuclear capabilities have not been destroyed, they are now more exposed than ever before.
However, the other three goals have faltered. Security and trust in governance have diminished since the government’s formation.
The cost of living has surged, exacerbated by the war, and any prospects of expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia – seemingly within reach before October 7 – have been pushed down the road, though it will be interesting to see to what degree US President-elect Donald Trump will be able to push that when he returns to office in three weeks.
On November 20, 2022, when then-prime minister Yair Lapid was chairing his last cabinet meeting, he told his ministers this: “I was honored to serve this country and its citizens together with you. We’ll be back in this room, sooner than you think.” He repeated the pledge two weeks later in his farewell speech to the Knesset as prime minister: “We’ll be coming back soon.”Or not.
Should elections be called tomorrow, it would take another five or six months for them to be held and a government to be formed, meaning Netanyahu’s current government would have served just over two-and-a-half years. In Israeli terms, that is already a long term.
Of Israel’s 37 governments, only 11 have lasted any longer, with the average length being some two years and three months. The next elections need to be held by October 27, 2026, which is no longer that far off.
The positioning for the next round of elections is already under way, as was evident when Gallant announced that he was leaving the Knesset but staying in the Likud, positioning himself for a possible primary run.
Ben-Gvir’s actions are also a way of positioning himself before the next elections: forcing the prime minister to the Knesset on Tuesday was a way of flexing his political muscles.
The image of a weakened leader, forced to plead with his other coalition partners for loyalty, offers a stark reminder of Netanyahu’s growing political vulnerability.
His grip on power is weakening, as internal factions clash, and as issues that he had hoped to push off – such as haredi conscription and Ben-Gvir’s ravenous political ambitions – are coming to a head and, together, could be his political undoing.