On December 28, 2016, just three weeks before the Obama administration closed shop, then-secretary of state John Kerry gave a long farewell speech on the Middle East in the State Department, with the bottom line sounding like a Tom Friedman New York Times column: It’s all because of the settlements.
Kerry, clearly frustrated, argued that while settlements may not be the sole reason peace has failed to materialize, they top the list of obstacles.
His remarks came shortly after the US abstained from a UN Security Council vote, allowing the passage of a sharply worded anti-settlement resolution, and this speech was his “the-settlements-are-the-bogeyman” defense of that vote.
Fast forward to Tuesday, when outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken offered his own parting thoughts on the Middle East. Speaking to the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, Blinken’s address took a different tone.
While he, too, criticized the settlements – citing continued expansion and extremist violence – his analysis was a far more nuanced goodbye to the region than was Kerry’s.
Here are some key takeaways:
‘Integration’ – a new Mideast buzzword
While previous Democratic administrations, such as US President Barack Obama’s and US President Bill Clinton’s, had the establishment of a Palestinian state as their primary Middle East goal, Blinken said the Biden administration’s primary goal in the area was fostering regional integration.
“Our goal,” he said, “was not to repeat the blunder of years past of trying to transform its governments or its societies, but rather to transform relations with, between, and among US partners in the region.”
A Middle East into which Israel was integrated would mean a more secure and stable region, Blinken said, explaining why the administration sought to deepen the Abraham Accords and expand them to include Saudi Arabia – something the US was pursuing intensely until October 7 intervened.
A two-state solution with ironclad security guarantees for Israel?
Two-state advocates have long argued that Israel cannot remain both Jewish and democratic if it holds on to Judea and Samaria. If it annexes the territories and gives the Palestinians the vote, it will – because of the demographics – eventually cease to be a Jewish state, and if it annexes the territories but denies the Palestinians the vote, it will ultimately no longer be democratic.
However, reconciling a Palestinian state with “ironclad security guarantees” – something Blinken said several times during his remarks – is equally perplexing.
The Hamas-run mini-state of Gaza has proven the risk of establishing a Palestinian entity alongside – let alone inside – Israel. It is not clear what ironclad security guarantees the US or anyone could give to ensure that such a state would not eventually threaten Israel.
Only Israel can provide ironclad guarantees for its security, and – as October 7 showed – even it is not able to do this.
The US post-war plan for Gaza
In what might come as a surprise to many Israelis, Blinken revealed that a detailed post-conflict plan for Gaza does exist.
Central to this vision is a reformed Palestinian Authority – a proposition unlikely to fly in Jerusalem.
“For many months, we’ve been working intensively with our partners to develop a detailed post-conflict plan that would allow Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza, prevent Hamas from filling back in, and provide for Gaza’s governance, security, and reconstruction,” Blinken said.
This plan involves the PA inviting international partners to manage interim governance functions, including banking, water, and civil coordination with Israel. It envisions Palestinians from Gaza and PA representatives gradually transitioning authority to a reformed PA administration.
Blinken did not define what a “fully reformed PA” would look like, but his stressing this helps explain recent moves the PA has taken to fight Hamas and Islamic Jihad elements in the West Bank – it is trying to show that it is in the process of “reforming.”
The plan also leans heavily on the UN’s cooperation – despite Israel’s deep distrust of the organization – and proposes a new US-backed initiative to train and equip a PA-led security force.
However, a plan relying on PA security forces – which have not exactly proven to be reliable in the past – is also not going to go over well with the Israeli public.
Time-bound and condition-bound pathways to statehood
Deadlines for a Palestinian state are nothing new in peace efforts, but Blinken’s framework introduces a more conditional approach.
The process must be time-bound, he argued, “because no one will believe or accept an endless process. Palestinians need and deserve a clear and near horizon for political self-determination.”
But it must also be condition-based: “While Palestinians have a right to self-determination, with that right comes responsibility.
“No one should expect Israel to accept a Palestinian state that is led by Hamas or other extremists, that is militarized or has an independent armed militia, that aligns with Iran or others who reject Israel’s right to exist, that educates and preach rejectionism, or that, unreformed, becomes a failed state,” Blinken said.
Adding conditions to the equation is a definite plus.
Israel’s war has transformed the region
The cost of the hostage deal has led to a barrage of commentary in recent days inside Israel, saying that it has failed in its war against Hamas.
Blinken gave a scorecard of what has happened in the region since October 7 that paints a different picture.What is interesting in his telling is a number of achievements that he enumerated came about in spite of initial US objections.
Hamas’s military and governance capabilities, he said, have been decimated, and its masterminds eliminated.According to Blinken, Iran’s influence has been weakened.
“Tehran is on its back feet,” and two missile attacks on Israel failed due to a coalition of regional partners coordinated by the US, he said. In addition, Israel’s response exposed Iran’s vulnerabilities while delivering a clear deterrent message.
“Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, is a shadow of its former self,” Blinken said, pointing to leadership losses, destroyed tunnels, and battered forces retreating north of the Litani River after a US-brokered ceasefire.
Former president Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, long backed by Iran and Russia, has fallen, and Iran’s supply routes to Hezbollah have been severed. Israeli strikes, he said, demolished key military sites and weapons, including chemical arsenals.
Again, some of those steps – such as the initial ground incursion into Gaza, the move into Rafah, and the invasion of southern Lebanon – took place despite objections from the administration.
Rare understanding of Israeli trauma
US and European diplomats often underestimate the traumas Israelis endure and the impact that this has on their worldview.
Blinken spoke about a Palestinian state on several occasions during the address but had the wisdom to acknowledge that Israeli hearts and minds were in a different place.
“In Israeli hearts and minds lies the conviction that past efforts at peace have been met with rejection, violent resistance, greater insecurity – with Camp David leading to the Second Intifada, and the unilateral withdrawals from Lebanon and Gaza leading to Hezbollah and to Hamas.
“In the wake of October 7, convincing Israelis otherwise will be a necessary and major undertaking,” per Blinken.He acknowledged that convincing Israelis of the merits of a two-state solution will be challenging, especially after October 7.
Nevertheless, he believed normalization with Saudi Arabia could help shift public sentiment.
He may be overly optimistic, but recognition of the very need to convince Israelis rather than just impose a solution is itself a refreshing shift from past rhetoric.
An overly rosy outlook
Blinken ended with a familiar refrain: Enemies are not hereditary – which is a beautiful thought.
To prove his point, he said that during his four years as secretary of state, two of his closest partners were Germany and Japan.
“Not very long ago, it was a very different world,” he said.
His uplifting message was that Palestinians and Israelis are not destined to be enemies.
He’s right. But the comparison, though hopeful, overlooks a key difference. Postwar German and Japanese children were educated for peace, not taught to hate the US and Americans. In Palestinian schools, hatred of Israel and Jews remains pervasive, shaping future generations.
Blinken ended his prepared remarks with a touching reference to a 2021 documentary in which Gazan children expressed dreams of becoming doctors, pilots, and engineers. But alongside those dreams, many are also taught to dream of a Middle East without Israel or Jews.
Until this changes, little else will.