Israel and Hamas are set to begin implementing a ceasefire deal next week after over fifteen months of war. At the core of the deal is the long-awaited release of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in return for a large number of Palestinian prisoners who are serving sentences in Israeli prisons.
The details of the deal have not been made officially public. It has been widely reported that in the first stage of the deal, which will span for over a month, 33 Israeli hostages will be released. In return, 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will be released from prisons in Israel.
“There is no price for the return of Israeli hostages,” former Prison Service Assistant Commissioner Ilan Borreda said in a video conference held by the Jerusalem Press Club. “The rational thing to do is one prisoner for one hostage, but that is not the case.”
According to reports, Hamas will receive 50 prisoners for each Israeli soldier it releases and 30 prisoners for each Israeli civilian released. The numbers reportedly vary depending on whether the hostages are alive or not, leaving much room for uncertainty.
“Until the last minute, Israel will not know how many live hostages it is receiving and then how many prisoners it will have to release,” Borreda added.
It is estimated that hundreds of the 5,000 prisoners in Israeli jails have been sentenced to life in prison. Many of them are expected to be on Hamas' list for release. One of the main concerns for the Israeli defense establishment—and a major criticism from some of the Israeli public—is the risk that these prisoners may return to terrorist activity.
Resumption of terrorist activity
“Israel should be prepared that every single one of them will resume their terrorist activity,” said Borreda, who estimates that most of the released prisoners are above the age of 50. Some of the most symbolic Palestinian prisoners, figures who have been etched in Israeli collective memory as masterminds of deadly terrorist attacks might also be on the list. The list will be published once the deal is finalized in order to allow families of victims to appeal their release to the Supreme Court. In previous deals, the court did not accept the petitions.
One of the main obstacles in the negotiations was determining where the Palestinian prisoners would be released. Some will return to Palestinian-controlled territories in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Israel has reportedly insisted that others be exiled to countries such as Turkey and Qatar, which have been Hamas' patrons for decades.
“The easiest way to control and monitor them is if they return to the West Bank,” said Borreda. “All of the intelligence branches in Israel will have to monitor them very closely because there is no other choice but to release them in order to see our hostages home.”