Since October 7, 2023, the IDF has killed over 850 Palestinians in the West Bank, with over 90% of them said to be terrorists. It also said that it has arrested well over 6,000 Palestinians since the war began and carried out over 120 airstrikes in the territory.
In July 2023 and this past August, the IDF undertook massive and extended operations in Jenin and other parts of the northern West Bank. For a short amount of time, following these operations, there seemed to be a drop in terrorist activity. But this was short-lived, and Palestinian terror waves from the West Bank returned.
That is why on January 21, the IDF began Operation Iron Wall, its third major West Bank operation in less than two years, coupled with the nearly nightly raids it has been undertaking since March 2022. The question is: How is this operation different from the previous ones, and might it mean that the IDF won’t need to carry out another major one in six months?
The military has said it is proud that during the current operation, it killed over 50 terrorists – including around 35 in Jenin, Tulkarm, and Tammun – and that it arrested over 100 Palestinian suspects, along with the 15 airstrikes it says it has carried out.
However, these numbers seem like a drop in a bucket compared to the statistics of the overall war: Over 850 terrorists killed, 120 airstrikes carried out, and 6,000 suspects arrested. If Palestinian terror has morphed, found new recruits, and made comebacks after losing much larger numbers, what might indicate to the IDF that it won’t happen again?
New approach
The answer lies in two new approaches the military has taken in this latest operation: destroying terrorist infrastructure and maintaining a presence. In past operations, some structures were destroyed, but many remained usable, albeit with bullet holes and other minor damage. Now, the IDF is destroying whole structures on a much broader level.
If a structure was used significantly, like as a weapons lab, then instead of just seizing the explosive items or surveillance cameras, the IDF is now destroying it.
In combat against suspects resisting arrest, instead of trying to keep attacks limited so as just to kill the terrorist in question, the military is now not holding back and is often destroying the whole structure where the suspect in question is hiding out.
This is all part of a Gaza-ization mindset of the IDF, which is using tougher tactics it learned from Gaza, tactics that may produce greater deterrence against Palestinian terror in the West Bank. Now, about two weeks into the operation, the military has said it will remain in play in Jenin and other sites for longer. This could mean a much longer presence in the area, something the IDF has done, to some extent, in Gaza.
Is the purpose of a longer stay to catch more terrorists, deterrence, or to create the infrastructure to return to a semblance of normal life once the military pulls back its troops? The hard truth is that the last two operations and the current one all happened not long after significant Palestinian terror incidents.
The IDF has talked of catching the Jenin fighters by surprise, but it seems that many still succeeded in fleeing. In one location, "top" terrorists were killed in February, July, August, and October of 2024. So, it seems like they recruit quickly.
There can always be hope that the new aspects of this operation will work, but it is just as likely that absent either a much longer show of force or a bigger diplomatic horizon, the waves of terror will be back not long after the IDF ends this latest round.