In his nearly 17 years as prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has had many meetings with US presidents. None, however, like the one he is scheduled to have on Tuesday with US President Joe Biden.
Because when he meets Biden, he will be meeting a lame-duck president. But a lame-duck president not only with a little more than two months until he moves out of the White House, as is generally the case, but who -- unless he is deemed unfit to finish out his term -- will serve for another half-year. That’s a long time.
Netanyahu’s experience with lame-duck presidents up until now has not been overly successful.
In December 2016, in the waning days of Barack Obama’s presidency, the US allowed a strongly critical anti-settlement resolution to pass the UN Security Council, a resolution it was clear that incoming President Donald Trump opposed. This move capped eight years of a very rocky relationship between Obama and Netanyahu.
Trump’s lame-duck period from his election defeat in November 2020 to Biden's inauguration on January 20 was also not a moment to remember for Netanyahu, as Trump -- who contested the election results -- was furious at Netanyahu for congratulating Biden on his victory. The once-fabled Trump-Netanyahu bromance went downhill from there, though there are efforts now underway to patch things up.
These experiences with lame-duck presidents will have to be in the back of Netanyahu’s mind, or in the back of the mind of some of his advisors, when he meets Biden.
That Biden is no longer running for the presidency changes the dynamics of the meeting in a number of ways.
For instance, if Biden had hoped to midwife a hostage agreement that would lead to an end to the fighting in Gaza and to greater calm in the Middle East as a significant achievement before the November 5 election, he would have had to use significant leverage on Netanyahu.
Now, however, that leverage is diminished as the cost to Netanyahu -- or, for that matter, any foreign leader -- in bucking Biden is much less, knowing that the president will not be in power in six months' time.
Biden knows this as well, however. And he may very well use the meeting with Netanyahu to demonstrate to the world -- through pressuring the prime minister publicly -- that he is still very much in charge.
Six months is a long time, and Biden needs to project strength abroad, despite the US domestic chaos. One way to project that strength could be in pushing harder for a ceasefire in Gaza. Furthermore, since he is not running for re-election, Biden could have more freedom to push for a comprehensive ceasefire deal without worrying about the political consequences.
Then, of course, there is the legacy issue.
Generally, presidents start thinking seriously about their legacy toward the end of their second term. Since Biden is now not going to have a second term, legacy thoughts must be going through his mind and the mind of those in his cabinet. Biden may feel that one issue that would help secure his legacy would be putting an end to the current war.
Even more than a ceasefire, Biden would love to see his “grand Mideast bargain” play out -- a new regional architecture based on accommodations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a US-Saudi security agreement.
The chance of this happening now are almost nil, though movement of any sort in that direction could help cement a positive foreign policy legacy. Since the Saudis are conditioning accommodation with Israel on movement toward a Palestinian state, Biden -- in search of a legacy -- might try to push hard on that issue in his waning days.
Biden’s announcement that he will not run again changes Netanyahu’s calculations as well, primarily because it may possibly reduce the chances of a Trump victory in November.
One argument that had gained traction in recent weeks was that Netanyahu was biding his time until November, running out the clock, in anticipation of a Trump victory and a Republican administration that would place fewer constraints on Israel than the current one regarding the waging of this war. This is the reason, according to this argument, why Netanyahu added new conditions to the hostage agreement -- such as not withdrawing from the Philadelphi Corridor that runs along the border with Egypt or the east-west Netzarim Route that splits Gaza in two.
If, indeed, Netanyahu was banking on Trump beating Biden in November, ushering in a Republican administration led by the man whom Netanyahu once referred to as “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” then Biden’s stepping down now and his desire to hand the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris may change Netanyahu’s calculation as this dramatically changes the dynamics of the presidential race. If a Trump victory after the president’s horrendous debate appearance last month looked like a good bet, a Trump victory over Harris may -- despite what Trump is saying -- is by no means a given.
For one thing, if she gets the nomination -- and that, in itself, is still a big if -- it is likely to have an energizing effect on the youth and some progressives who were reluctant to support Biden because of his support for Israel. Remember, Biden is a president who declared loudly and proudly that he is a Zionist, not necessarily a proclamation that resonated with a good part of the progressive wing of his party.
Don’t expect Harris to make a similar declaration. Instead, expect her to articulate more sympathy and support for the plight of the Palestinians, something she has done over the last several months, and something that could bring out those voters who would not vote for Biden because of his support for Israel. Though these voters are not legion, they are well placed in key battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
Prior to the 2020 election, Harris, in a virtual event with Jewish Democratic donors, pledged that a Biden-Harris administration “will sustain our unbreakable commitment to Israel's security, including the unprecedented military and intelligence cooperation pioneered during the Obama-Biden administration and the guarantee that Israel will always maintain its qualitative military edge." And it did.
Harris is a moderate Democrat with strong ties in the Jewish community and a good record on Israel. Her tone in recent months has been more critical of Israel than that of Biden himself, and some attribute this to a good-cop, bad-cop strategy within the administration, with her being notably more free to criticize Israel than Biden.
Some may look at her Jewish husband as insurance of a policy that will be supportive of Israel, but that -- in and of itself -- is no guarantee. Her husband, Dough Emhoff, has been an active liaison with the Jewish community and has been very engaged in combatting antisemitism. He has been much less involved, at least publicly, in any type of pro-Israel advocacy.
Proceed with caution
The fact that Harris may be America’s next president is something that Netanyahu is going to have to take into consideration when he meets her in the coming days, much more than he had to do in the past.
The stakes are high, and the US political dynamics are shifting rapidly. With Biden's presidency entering its twilight and a new era on the horizon, Netanyahu's diplomatic agility will be put to the test. How he navigates the changing situation right now will have significant ramifications down the road. With so much changing so fast, this is a visit to Washington unlike any he has had before.