Yoni Ben-Menachem is a journalist who previously served as CEO of the Israel Broadcasting Authority and as director of the Voice of Israel broadcast network. He served in the Israeli Intelligence Corps and was discharged with the rank of captain, then studied for a bachelor's degree in Arabic language and literature and a master's degree in East Asian studies. He speaks Arabic fluently in several dialects.
Ben-Menachem was the first to interview Yasser Arafat before the Oslo Accords and covered, among other things, Israel's political contacts with the Palestinians, with Syria, in the Wye River Memorandum, the Camp David Accords, and more. Today he serves as a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, a commentator on Arab media channels, and a lecturer on the topic of the Middle East.
In addition, he is a consultant for political crises, intelligence, and terrorism matters. His skills, experience, and deep knowledge of the nuances of the Middle East allow him to analyze the reality and challenges that Israel is currently facing. Maariv asked to contribute from his point of view, especially to understand Egypt as an actor in the overall fabric of interests in the region.
Despite various reports that the Hamas movement responded positively to Israel's response to the Egyptian proposal, Aizat Rishak, a member of the Hamas political bureau, stated that Hamas has not published any reference to the abductee release deal. Rishak said that Hamas is still examining it and that the publications in Israel are intended to create confusion.
Ben-Menachem also commented that Hamas officials are attempting to lower enthusiasm from Israel and Blinken, the American secretary of state who is currently in Saudi Arabia. In this analysis, Ben-Menachem also referred to what Blinken said this morning - that the Egyptian offer is generous, that Hamas should take it, and that the US hopes Hamas will decide quickly.
The meaning of Hamas's chilling message from Rishek's mouth to Ben-Menachem's understanding is, "that Israelis, Americans, or Egyptians are trying to put Hamas under pressure and push them into this deal. Hamas, for their part, say they are not in a hurry to get anywhere."
Ben-Menachem emphasized that no one really knows what reservations Israel made to the Egyptian intelligence delegation that brought its proposal. Only one publication by Yaron Avraham claimed that Israel is ready to withdraw from the Netzer Corridor. On this, Ben-Menachem stated, "I don't think it makes much sense because this is one of Israel's cards. The corridor cuts the Strip in two and blocks the passage of the displaced people from the north of the Strip and back.
It leverages very serious pressure on Hamas. We are talking about between 20 and 40 hostages who will be released out of 133. This number is also not final because Hamas claims that it will be difficult to commit to 40 alive hostages and that it is not exactly in control and does not know what is happening with the other hostages who are not being held by them. Hamas is ready to commit to only 20."
On the other hand, Ben-Menachem specifies that "Israel demands, according to the intelligence data it has, at least 33 hostages. Even if, in the best case scenario, Hamas returns 33 hostages alive, this means that 100 Israeli hostages will remain in the hands of Hamas."
Ben-Menachem considers such large and significant concessions at such a stage, leaving with Hamas, apart from most of the hostages, also a very large lever of pressure on Israel to continue. He recognizes their motivation and that their basic demands are that Israel stop the war completely and withdraw from the Gaza Strip completely. This means they will remain in power, and the situation will return to normal.
If this is indeed the case, Ben-Menachem stated, "They murdered 1,400 Israelis, we lost several hundred more soldiers and thousands wounded in the war, and in the end they won, because we are in exchange for 33 hostages (to be the most optimistic), we will release hundreds of terrorists, including extremely dangerous murderers."
He emphasized that the list of prisoners will most likely include even more dangerous ones than Sinwar, for example, Abdullah Barghouti, who is serving 67 life sentences in an Israeli prison. Ben-Menachem continued, "If you take the balance of this deal, it is a defeat for Israel, the worst for Israel. Because most of the hostages remain held in their hands, and we have no pressure lever to continue." He estimated that the chances of a deal are 50%. Regarding the fact that Israel apparently agreed to stop the war, he said that "this is something that anyone can interpret however they want."
Ben-Menachem's analysis of Egypt's involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict
Regarding Egypt, Ben-Menachem stated, "They saw how the IDF attacked when the war started. In the north of the Gaza Strip, we dropped bombs and eliminated many. I don't know if the Palestinian numbers are correct and it may be that they are exaggerated, but there is no doubt that we killed a significant number of people there. The Egyptians are really afraid that there will be a forced crossing of thousands of refugees."
According to him, the Egyptians believe that Hamas wants to complicate matters by pushing displaced people to break through the fence and move to their territory. "It happened in the past," he recalls, "a few years ago, they broke through the fence by force, and then the Egyptians had to shoot them."
Ben-Menachem believes that the Egyptians will not be able to stop thousands of Palestinians who will move for fear of the bombs or that Hamas will push them. "The Egyptians will not be able to open fire and kill thousands of Palestinians so that Palestinians will enter Egyptian territory. This is already creating a very big problem for the Egyptian president. This will immediately destabilize the internal situation in Egypt. Hamas is part of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, which is the main opposition movement in Egypt to President El-Sisi, who is trying to topple him from power. When he came to power, he suppressed them by force and outlawed them, today it is considered a terrorist organization in Egypt."
He compared what is happening in the last month in Egypt with what is happening in Jordan and claims that King Abdullah has lost control, "The Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are holding huge demonstrations there and are openly threatening to topple him from power. In Egypt, they are afraid everything is under pressure from the Egyptian security forces, who carry out preventive arrests and forcefully hold the pressure cooker from exploding. It will create huge protests in Egypt, which may topple him from power. The Arab majority sympathizes with Hamas 100 percent and hates Israel. The majority is against the peace agreements. The rulers, on the other hand, play the American game, because they need the Americans. Egypt, for example, needs America for military and economic aid, without which it will collapse, the Egyptian government will collapse." Further, Ben-Menachem believes the Egyptians hold the internal situation better than the Jordanians. President El-Sisi fears that once they break in, there will be a massacre and that the Hamas and Qatari media will cover it up.
Ben-Menachem added another Egyptian interest: "They also need the help of Israel, which will lobby Congress and the Senate for them." He attributes this to the security cooperation between Israel and Egypt.
Further, Ben-Menachem revealed conversations he heard from security officials, "The Egyptians are simply afraid that their nakedness will be revealed to the public because as soon as the IDF seizes the Philadelphia axis, it will discover the tunnels that are underneath, which have been used to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip from Egypt for years. The Egyptians say that there is no smuggling under the Philadelphia axis, there are no tunnels, that in 2012 they flooded the tunnels with water and closed them all, and that this is all Israeli inventions to occupy Rafah."
Ben-Menachem pointed out that there is an Israeli security official who said that there are 130 tunnels under the Philadelphia axis, "I don't know if this is true, or Israeli propaganda, but Israel insists that there are. The Egyptians fear that if Israel seizes the tunnels, it will be a big blow for them on the world level, given Their insistence that there is no tunnel and that everything is Israeli lies. They think that in the end, Israel, as it conducts itself and fights, will not defeat Hamas. For Hamas to remain in power in the Strip, Egyptians may pay a heavy price. Until 2017, Gaza Hamas participated in attacks against the police and the Egyptian army inside Egyptian territory, together with the Muslim Brotherhood and the ISIS branch from northern Sinai. They were even complicit in a very famous attack by the Egyptian Attorney General."
He concluded, "This cooperation between Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and ISIS against the rule of al-Sisi greatly worried the Egyptians. In 2017, Sinwar was elected as the leader of Hamas and reached an agreement with Egyptian intelligence that the military arm would stop the attacks on Egyptian territory and in return would open the Rafah crossing in a continuous manner for the passage of people and goods, an open gate for Hamas to the outside world. Sinwar kept his commitment to the Egyptians. If he stays in power, he will come to account with Egypt, for everything that happened. If he emerges victorious in the war, he will renew the terror with the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS against al-Sisi's rule. The Egyptians do not see Israeli determination to eliminate Hamas. They are very worried about this."