On April 3, 2019, just six days before the first of what will be four elections in two years, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the Russian army had discovered in Syria the remains of Sgt. First Class Zachary Baumel, who went missing in action in Lebanon some 37 years earlier. The next day Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Russia and retrieved Baumel’s personal effects at an official ceremony in the Russian Defense Ministry.
On January 30, 2020, just a month before the third election in this current dizzying cycle, Netanyahu flew back to Israel from Washington via Moscow, and this time brought back to Israel on his plane 27-year-old Na’ama Issachar, who was sitting in jail after being sentenced to 7.5 years in prison after 9.5 gr. of cannabis were found in her suitcase during a stopover in Moscow on her way home from India.
And now, just over a month before the March 23 elections, Putin is reportedly playing a large role in arranging a prisoner swap that could lead to the release of a teenage Israeli girl who accidentally wandered into Syria, in exchange for two Golan residents convicted of security offenses.
To paraphrase James Bond in Goldfinger, “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time is a pattern.”
Looking at that pattern, and in light of the fact that US President Joe Biden has not yet called Netanyahu almost a month after being sworn into office, an outside observer could be excused for thinking: “Biden doesn’t call Netanyahu, but Putin delivers for him.”
If the current deal does come to fruition, will it make a big difference at the Israeli ballot booth? Most likely not, at least not between the right and left blocks. It is doubtful that a voter for Yesh Atid is going to suddenly vote for Netanyahu because he leveraged connections with Putin to rescue an Israeli girl from Syria. Even inside the right wing, will someone who was going to vote for Gideon Sa’ar or Naftali Bennett now change their vote on account of this one incident? Probably not.
But what the possible deal does is highlight two things that Netanyahu is interested in keeping in the public’s mind near election day: his close relationship with the powerful Russian leader, and his ability to use to Israel’s advantage the relationships he has cultivated over the years around the world – even if he is not Biden’s first, or even 15th, call. And that is something that could impact voters deciding between Netanyahu, Sa’ar or Bennett.
One reason proffered for Biden taking his time in calling Netanyahu is because he doesn’t want to do anything to benefit Netanyahu before the elections. Putin has no such qualms. To the contrary, he works well with Netanyahu, likes Netanyahu, and as the gestures he has made toward the prime minister just before previous elections indicates, he would like to see Netanyahu remain in office.
Those who say that Netanyahu’s close relationship with Putin reflects poorly on the prime minister and that a man is judged by the friends he keeps would do well to remember that since September 2015, Russia is parked on Israel’s back porch in Syria. As such it is critical for Israel to have a close relationship with Russia so that they understand each other’s interests and do not clash.
It is no small achievement that despite Russia’s presence in Syria, and despite Israel’s numerous actions against Iranian assets in that country, there has only been one accidental clash – in September 2018 when a Syrian anti-aircraft missile trying to hit Israeli aircraft hit a Russian Ilyushin plane instead, killing all 15 crew members aboard. That there have not been other such incidents, and that this one was quickly smoothed over, is not something to be taken for granted, or something that just comes out of nowhere. It is due in no small part to the personal relationship Netanyahu and Putin have built up.
If the currently discussed Russian-mediated prisoner swap comes to fruition, it will further highlight that relationship, and it will do this – by happenstance, coincidence or design – just a few weeks before the election.