The story on Monday was not the judicial reform legislation freeze or National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s new National Guard. It was about the survival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, which is now guaranteed for at least another month.
Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir struck a deal on Monday, in which the national security minister agreed not to leave the government after the prime minister announced a legislation freeze and negotiations over the government’s judicial reform, in exchange for the subjugation of a National Guard directly to Ben-Gvir.
The negotiations are unlikely to succeed in ending the current crisis, and the National Guard is unlikely to become directly subordinate to Ben-Gvir. What the deal did achieve was political brownie points for Ben-Gvir, and the survival of Netanyahu’s government for at least another month.
Ben-Gvir exploites Israel's fragile political situations
Ben-Gvir recognized a political opportunity and seized it. He knew that the prime minister was in a precarious position after the spontaneous protests on Sunday and mass strike on Monday. The national security minister first threatened to quit the government, and then, as Monday day dragged on, he added another threat: not to support the budget, which was being debated in the plenum for its first reading.
Ben-Gvir ordered his MKs out of the plenum and his number two, Development of the Negev and Galilee and National Resilience Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf, to filibuster the vote. Wasserlauf spoke for nearly three hours as his party leader forced Netanyahu’s hand. It was clear to all what was going on – at one point Ben-Gvir entered the plenum to signal Wasserlauf to keep going. Opposition MKs shouted to him, “How many billions will you receive?” and the national security minister smirked.
As the understanding of what was going on began to spread in the Knesset hallways, Ben-Gvir stated that his opposition to the legislation freeze was purely ideological. This, perhaps, would have been believable if he sufficed with a threat to quit the government, but not when it became apparent that he was also using the budget as a threat in order to bilk the prime minister.
The national security minister enjoyed a good haul. He received a promise that this Sunday, the government will decide to form a National Guard directly answerable to him. But this was already a promise in the coalition agreement between the Likud and his Otzma Yehudit Party. Essentially, Ben-Gvir and Netanyahu decided to sign on something that they already signed on three months ago.
The concept of an armed unit directly answerable to a politician is extremely unlikely, and likely illegal, with the chances of this coming into fruition very low. Far more likely is that there will be cosmetic changes to the already existing situation – a National Guard under the Border Police, perhaps with an increased budget or better equipment.
With the rates of crime in Israel’s Arab sector up, the rise in femicide, and Ben-Gvir’s public feuds with the police commissioner and attorney-general, the national security minister needed a political win desperately – and he seized this chance to get this
Netanyahu’s speech indicated that the chances of negotiations succeeding are low. The prime minister made a number of comments that spited the protesters, such as blaming the security establishment for not preventing opponents of the reforms from threatening to cease volunteering for reserve duty. This was a clear hint to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, whom Netanyahu announced Sunday night would be removed, after calling for a legislation freeze a day earlier due to threats to Israel’s national security.
Although he has not yet been officially fired, the defense minister is unlikely to remain in his position. This alone could be a reason for continued protests, even if some agreement is reached at the President’s Residence.
In any case, the prime minister stressed that the freeze was temporary and that the judicial reform bills would pass in the next Knesset term if no agreement was reached. More likely than the negotiating parties coming away from the President’s Residence with a new constitutional agreement, is that the sides will quickly begin to leak from within the negotiating room and launch a blame game in order to accuse the other side for the talks failing.
This could likely lead to a flare-up of protests, and a month from now, Israel could likely return to exactly where it is now.
What happened on Monday, in other words, is that Netanyahu promised Ben-Gvir something that the latter will likely not receive, so that Ben-Gvir will enable Netanyahu to enter negotiations that likely will not succeed.
Why? So that Ben-Gvir can score a political victory – and, more importantly, so that Netanyahu can keep his government alive for another month.