Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party wouldn't make it into the Knesset if elections were held today, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit Party would rise to seven seats on its own, according to a new poll published by Maariv on Friday morning.
The poll additionally found that Benny Gantz's National Unity party would rise to 43 seats, while Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid would drop to 13 seats and Meretz would rise to five seats.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would earn 18 seats, Shas would earn nine seats, Yisrael Beytenu would earn eight seats, United Torah Judaism would earn seven seats, and Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am would earn five seats each. Labor would fall below the electoral threshold.
In response to a question on who would be better as prime minister, 52% of respondents said that Gantz would be better, while 27% preferred Netanyahu. Some 21% said that they were unsure.
A closer look among specifically Likud voters shows that 56% would prefer Netanyahu as prime minister, while 26% believe Gantz would be better and 18% were unsure.
Among National Unity party voters, 98% would prefer Gantz as prime minister, while the other 2% are unsure. Among Yesh Atid voters, 85% prefer Gantz, while only 1% would prefer Netanyahu and 14% are unsure.
Some 500 respondents took part in the new poll, presenting a representative sample of the Israeli population of voting age. The margin of error of the poll stood at 4.3%.
What would happen if Hendel and Bennett returned to politics?
An internal poll that Maariv recently received showed that if Yoaz Hendel and former prime minister Naftali Bennett were to return to politics, the election results would change.
If Hendel were to lead a party called the "Liberal Right," it would earn seven seats. If Bennett were to head a similar party at the same time that Hendel ran, Bennett would earn 15 seats, while Hendel would earn five seats. If Bennett and Hendel were to run together, they would earn 18 seats. The main votes for Bennett and Hendel would come from people who currently vote for the National Unity Party, Yesh Atid, the Likud, Habayit Hayehudi, and the Religious Zionist Party.