Tuesday’s High Court of Justice ruling is unlikely to cause an immediate rupture in Israel’s governing coalition, for the simple reason that there are no other political constellations in which the haredi parties will be able to gain more than the current one.
In fact, the ruling may strengthen the coalition. The ruling will likely draw the haredim back to the negotiating table after negotiations between the haredi parties, the prime minister, and the finance and defense ministries fell through last month.
With the default now officially the draft of all eligible haredi men, the haredi parties have lost key leverage: time. Until Tuesday, time was on the haredi parties’ side. The defense ministry had taken its time in preparing for an increased haredi draft, and haredi parties hoped to avoid a scenario in which thousands of young men join the IDF. Tuesday’s ruling and the ensuing letter from the attorney general upped the urgency and pressure on haredi politicians – and they may be willing to make concessions that were not previously possible.
The coming weeks will include three competing fronts on the issue of the haredi IDF draft.
The three fronts
The first front is the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee (FADC). The committee will prepare in the coming weeks a bill that will answer the IDF’s needs. But whether or not the process will be done in cooperation with the haredim, or will lead to yet wave of mass protests and social strife, this time between haredim and everyone else, will be decided in back rooms in the prime minister’s office, during discussions that the public will not be privy to. The second front is thus private negotiations in the prime minister’s office.
Despite the fact that the FADC is led by a member of the Likud and enjoys a majority of coalition MKs, the committee may succeed in pushing through a bill against the haredi parties’ wishes, and even against the prime minister’s wishes. If there ever was an issue in which a coalition would go against the usually strict coalition discipline, and in which Israel’s legislative branch would differentiate and display its independence from the executive branch, it is the issue of the haredi draft – and there may be enough votes between the opposition and coalition to pass a bill over the head of the government.
The third front is the defense ministry and IDF, which is now required to draft 3,000 haredim in the year 2024, in addition to the usual yearly average of haredi recruits. The IDF must also prepare for an increase in these numbers in the immediate future. If agreements are not reached on one of the first two fronts, the IDF may simply create facts on the ground.
There are two central points that the haredi parties will not budge on. The first is that those who study full-time should be allowed to remain in their yeshivot. The second is that those who join the IDF will be able to maintain their lifestyle and remain haredi throughout.
Other than these two points, there is a lot of room to maneuver. While unlikely to cause an immediate rupture in the governing coalition, the three fronts are now likely to kick into higher gear – and it remains to be seen which will prevail.