Were an election to be held today, a party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett would earn 26 seats and be able to form a government coalition even without the help of the Arab parties, according to a Maariv poll conducted on Friday.
The polling was conducted by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with Panel4All.
This most recent election poll comes after a turbulent week in politics, where National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir forced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attend a Knesset vote just a day after undergoing surgery.
What if Bennett didn't run?
If Bennett would choose not to run in the next elections, the poll concluded that the National Unity Party, led by Benny Gantz, would lose two seats, and Otzma Yehudit, led by Ben-Gvir, would also weaken by two seats. The Religious Zionist Party would surpass the electoral threshold, and the Likud would gain one seat.
The poll further revealed that Yisrael Beytenu would gain a seat, thereby surpassing Yesh Atid, which would lose one.
Compared to the previous week’s polling, Netanyahu’s coalition would gain seats this week, rising to 50 mandates, while the opposition bloc stands at 60 (down from 62 in the previous poll). The Arab parties secure 10 additional seats.
With Bennett’s 26 mandates, however, due to the weakening of National Unity, which dropped to 10 seats, and the Religious Zionist Party crossing the electoral threshold with four seats, the opposition bloc under Bennett’s leadership would total 63 mandates compared to Netanyahu’s bloc at 48.
This outcome enables the formation of an alternative government without the Arab parties.
In response to the question, “If elections for the Knesset were held today, which party would you vote for?” the results showed Likud gaining 24 mandates, up from 23 in the previous poll.
National Unity dropped to 18 mandates, down from 20, while Yisrael Beytenu increased to 16, up from 15. Yesh Atid fell to 15 mandates, down from 16, and The Democrats (Labor and Meretz) remained unchanged at 11 mandates.
Shas dropped to nine mandates from 10, while United Torah Judaism held steady at seven mandates. Otzma Yehudit dropped to six mandates from eight, Hadash-Ta’al decreased to five mandates from six, and Ra’am rose to five mandates from four. The Religious Zionist Party crossed the electoral threshold, securing four mandates after previously polling at zero.
Balad (2.1%) and Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope (0.9%) remain below the electoral threshold.
In response to the question, “If a new party led by Naftali Bennett were to run in the next Knesset elections (with other parties unchanged), which party would you vote for?” the results indicated that in addition to Bennett’s 26 mandates, Likud would follow with 22 mandates, while both the National Unity Party and Yesh Atid received 10 mandates each. The Democrats and Shas each garnered nine mandates, Yisrael Beytenu received eight, and United Torah Judaism maintained seven mandates.
Otzma Yehudit secured six mandates, Ra’am obtained five mandates, while Hadash-Ta’al and the Religious Zionist Party each received four mandates.
The coalition of Bennett’s party (26), National Unity (10), Yesh Atid (10), The Democrats (9), and Yisrael Beytenu (8) would therefore come out ahead with 63 mandates.