Over the last few weeks, Iran’s regime has been watching the protests in Israel closely, as can been seen by reports from the regime’s own media and its take on the protests, as well as statements put out by officials.
Overall, the regime took interest in the protests’ potential influence on the security situation; Iran wants to believe that Israel is on the verge of a civil war. However, it also knows from watching the protests take a pause for now, that Israel’s society is much stronger than how Iranian propaganda has painted it.
According to a series of articles put out this week by Iran’s pro-regime media, the narrative was divided between those who accurately reported a freeze in the judicial overhaul legislation, and those who yet hoped that the divide would lead to civil war.
The propaganda was rampant, depicting the protests as an attempt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “usurp” power so as to further rule over “Palestinian land,” according to the reports. For Iran, the end game is always the same: it is interested in Israel’s destruction, so it sees everything in that light and in how it could shape its own policies.
Iranian proxy groups and allies, like Hezbollah, toed the same line. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has said that the disputes in Israel are part of the “seed of the end of the occupying regime,” a message and tone typical among Iran’s ranks; The IRGC puts out a narrative to its media and to its allies, and simply repeats it.
Particularly during the protests, Iran’s regime sought to be cautious in confronting Israel, something that can be seen from how slow it was to claim new missile tests or launch new naval drills.
It has apparently not been increasing weapons shipments to Syria or Iraq. While it did shift focus to confront US forces in eastern Syria, it didn’t take any concrete actions on the Israel front.
This can indicate that the regime thinks the protests should not lead to escalation with Iran and its proxies because this might lead to – paradoxically – Israeli unity in the face of an even greater existential threat. Now, with the legislation freeze, Iran’s regime will need to recalculate its response.
Iran is looking at Israeli media
It is clear from Iran’s own narrative how much the regime focuses on following Israeli media to try to understand what is happening inside the country – it often quotes leading Israeli newspapers and re-reports them.
This can be read as an attempt by the regime to create a feedback loop for its own confirmation bias. Every domestic dispute here is seen as somehow a huge win for Iran because it shows that Israel is caught up in internal chaos that will result in its implosion.
Yet Israel doesn’t implode and Iran’s regime is constantly wrong about it being the end. This tendency to hope that internal friction will weaken Israel shows how hollow Iran’s own propaganda about any actual confrontation against Israel has become. Even as it continues to support its proxy groups against Israel, including in the West Bank and Gaza, it has seen most of its attempts fail.